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andrewduckerIn twenty years the UK will have...
left the EU, and stayed out
11 (23.4%)
left the EU, and rejoined
28 (59.6%)
remained in the EU
6 (12.8%)
SEIWEIC
2 (4.3%)
In twenty years Scotland will have...
left the UK and be doing well
27 (58.7%)
left the UK and be doing badly
8 (17.4%)
stayed in the UK
11 (23.9%)
SEIWEIC
0 (0.0%)
In twenty years Northern Ireland will have...
united with the Republic of Ireland
33 (71.7%)
remained part of the UK
11 (23.9%)
SEIWEIC
2 (4.3%)
In twenty years the USA will have...
learned the lessons of Trump and reformed itself in some ways
5 (10.6%)
become the Republic of Gilead
14 (29.8%)
muddled along in its normal state of chaos
27 (57.4%)
SEIWEIC
1 (2.1%)
In 20 years the EU will have...
achieved more political integration
13 (27.1%)
fractured
7 (14.6%)
muddled along
28 (58.3%)
SEIWEIC
0 (0.0%)
In 20 years Russia will have...
become increasingly authoritarian, descending into full-on fascism
33 (73.3%)
had a democratic revival
10 (22.2%)
SEIWEIC
2 (4.4%)
In 20 years the Middle East will have...
reformed significantly, with more democracy and better rights
16 (36.4%)
become a hotbed of war and suffering
25 (56.8%)
SEIWEIC
3 (6.8%)
In 20 years China will have...
clamped down even further, showing a country can be economically successful and authoritarian
28 (59.6%)
opened up significantly
18 (38.3%)
SEIWEIC
1 (2.1%)
no subject
Date: 2018-07-10 12:20 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2018-07-10 12:23 pm (UTC)(You haven't answered the poll though)
no subject
Date: 2018-07-10 12:30 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2018-07-10 12:55 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2018-07-10 01:10 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2018-07-10 01:00 pm (UTC)So most of my answers are what I believe would be for the best.
But they're also conditional: I still believe the UK will stay in the EU; if it does leave (or more likely crash out), I think it will be back in within a decade. But also that Scotland would have seceded, and joined the EU, in the interim.
I really don't know what will happen in Ireland.
Re: My (deeply miserable) best guesses as to the future.
Date: 2018-07-10 01:10 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2018-07-10 01:13 pm (UTC)I really think that Brexit will fail Royally.
Scotland wanted to leave and I think they will.
The Irish youth don't care about the troubles and there will be a lot of pressure to reunify.
Russia won't change until Putin is dead and he is a relatively young man. They deserve better but won't change.
The middle east is a wild card. In the 1960s it was a tourist place. Today it is ruble. Turkey was the shining light of democracy and that has been put out. I think there will be an all out war in the middle east but sadly the Muslim hordes will win, not decency.
China will continue to change. We won't recognize them in 20 years.
no subject
Date: 2018-07-11 12:50 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2018-07-11 04:01 am (UTC)Thank Guy MacPherson for that one.
no subject
Date: 2018-07-11 09:26 am (UTC)It's not that the factors at play are not comprehensible. I'd bet on "muddled along" everywhere, except that the chaos factors and extra tensions arising from global warming and shortening tempers make me more pessimistic generally, but without being able to put specific interpretations on things.
The details of how elections are won and lost matter. And so much detail depends on accidents of timing based on unknowable factors. It might turn out after the fact that England winning the World Cup - or not - is significant to sentiment and timing of events in the UK. Someone significant might do something significant somewhere for reasons we can't see. There might be an earthquake, or a flood, or a riot, somewhere that turns out to matter.
no subject
Date: 2018-07-14 05:03 am (UTC)