Post-midnight thoughts on Brexit

[andrewducker]

The UK is currently sublimating under the kind of heatwave that the UK doesn't get, the Conservative government is disintegrating (with the Minister of the Brexit department resigning), and between these two things I can't sleep.

So...
After the spectacular own goal in 2017 of calling an election and losing their majority, the Conservatives went into coalition with the DUP.
Which meant that they now had to come up with a solution to Brexit which:
1) Kept the DUP happy by not putting a border between Northern Ireland and mainland Britain.
2) Kept the Good Friday Agreement by not putting a border between Northern Ireland and The Republic of Ireland.
3) Kept the Brexiter Conservatives happy by putting a hard border between the UK and Europe.

And also:
1) Kept a majority of all MPs onside.
2) Kept a majority of Conservative MPs onside.
3) Came up with a deal that the EU will accept.


The problem being that there is no such thing. If May swings towards Remain then Davis (and Rees Mogg/The ERG) will unseat her - which is what the resignation is leading into. Probably followed by Boris, who would also like to be Prime Minister.

And if she swings towards No Deal then the Remainers have said they'll do likewise.

There is no majority anywhere for any kind of alternative to remaining in Europe. So either we cancel Brexit or we tie ourselves in knots so much that we can't negotiate at all and we fall out of the EU with no deal by default in March.

(And no, Labour aren't much better. See this, this , and this).

None of which is a change from my last summary. Except that Britain has, finally, over two years since it held a referendum, put together a negotiating position for "what it wants". And discovered that there is no one thing which they can agree makes for a satisfactory Brexit. But we already knew that nobody knew what they were voting for.

I could, of course, be wrong here. Davis might have resigned because he's realised that May's deal is terrible for the UK, what with our economy being 80% services, and he's had a damascene conversion to Remain, which is going to be followed by other heavyweight* Conservatives, as they realise that Brexit is a fucking stupid idea and start swimming with the tide.
- Nope

But as it is, both May, and anyone who follows her, is in for an impossible job.

*Seriously though - are there any currently competent Conservative MPs in positions of power? My father's been a Conservative voter since the Winter of Discontent (except for 1997), and he's absolutely disgusted by the current lot. I'm sure we used to have _some_ competent Conservatives in the olden days?

Comments

damascene?

[darkoshi]

What does that word mean, in the sense that you used it? None of the definitions I found seem to fit.

Re: damascene?

[darkoshi]

... wondering if it's a euphemism for damn-ass ??

Oh, nevermind; found it now - should have searched on both words instead of only the one.
https://www.abbreviations.com/damascene%20conversion

D'oh. And now I realized I had the 2nd word wrong - I thought you had written "damascene conversation".

Re: damascene?

[andrewducker]

Glad you got there before I woke up :-)

[emperorzombie]

Sajid Javid doesn't seem entirely useless, but I may not have been paying enough attention to him previously to remember any gaffes, and he was also pro-remain so he wou;dn't appease the Brexiters.

[calimac]

I cannot see his name without thinking of that photo of him standing in front of the Home Office in that bizarre pose. I'm guessing he thought it was supposed to convey strength but it just made him look incredibly stupid.

[emperorzombie]

He does look daft but it might have been a lucky photo - the BBC found some footage suggesting he was caught in mid-step. Of course it wouldn't be a thing if the Tories hadn't been earnestly adopting the power pose long before that.

[calimac]

Hmm. We might owe him an apology, though I'm not entirely satisfied that that quick motion is when the photo was taken.

[ckd]

I'm increasingly convinced that the only viable path is for some party to openly declare that Brexit Is Bullshit, break the Con/DUP coalition and force the government to fall, then win a snap election.

My estimate of the odds of that happening are somewhat lower than "previously unsuspected volcano swallows Westminster", though the latter might also suffice.

[andrewducker]

To force an election they need a majority to call No Confidence, which would mean conservatives voting to bring down their own government. Theoretically possible, but not likely.
(Although Brexit is one of a few possible triggers)

[drplokta]

Doesn’t have to be Conservatives, the DUP voting for no confidence would do the trick. The Conservatives don’t have a majority on their own.

[andrewducker]

Good point!

And I can see them doing so, in the right situation!

[calimac]

But what would that situation be? As the DUP are pro-Brexit (the only people in NI who are, apparently), why would they support a no-confidence motion which could lead to an anti-Brexit government?

In any case, I'm wondering what turn in thought might lead there. Apparently even now the majority of the Commons is anti-Brexit; the problem is that the Brexiters insist the referendum gives them the moral advantage (which is why they oppose parliamentary approval, a second referendum, etc., any of which might lose them that), and even a change in government wouldn't change their minds. Labour is likewise too torn over the issue to offer the moral leadership necessary to turn anti-Brexit. And no other party has enough seats to matter if Labour won't.

[andrewducker]

The only time I can see the DUP doing it is if May decides to put a border down the Irish Sea.

[andrewducker]

And yes, the claim of a moral advantage needs to be defused. Which is why we might need a second referendum.

[xenophanean]

I think you're being a bit optimistic with those odds right there. Would be good if it did happen though (declaration or unsuspected volcano).

[dewline]

Could the UK situation be further pushed towards rescuability(?) by Canada opening talks to join the EU?

[andrewducker]

I can't see Canada doing that any time soon.

[dewline]

I know that the odds of our current government doing so are slim to none.

[drplokta]

The ERG doesn’t have the power to unseat May. They have enough support to call a vote of no confidence in her, but not enough support to win such a vote.

[andrewducker]

Good point.

So they can't eject her unless she fails a no confidence. Frankly she'd be smart to declare her direction of travel before then, unless there's a limit on how often a No Confidence can be sought.

[khoth.livejournal.com]

If she survives a No Confidence, they can't force another for twelve months.

That's after Brexit Day now, so they really won't want to call a vote unless they're sure they can win.

[nojay]

As George RR Martin famously misquoted, "Conference season is coming." Theresa May MP is Prime Minister because she's the leader of the party in Parliament that can command a majority and propose and pass legislation. If she is deposed as leader of that party or resigns or whatever during or after the conference it's unlikely she could command a majority of Parliament in which case it's a quick visit to Liz to resign as PM and a new leader will be chosen by the party and plugged into the Number 10 socket.

Who that new leader might be is another matter but a full-blown General election usually follows such a shift within the party of government in Parliament.

[andrewducker]

It didn't for Gordon Brown. Or Theresa May.

[nojay]

Tony Blair wasn't deposed by his own party and Gordon Brown was personally chosen by the Golden Boy himself. Cameron left under a cloud after the Brexit referendum and May was a popular choice by the Party faithful to succeed him, inheriting a small but functional majority in Parliament and the support of the anti-EU crowd. Both of those factors are one with the snows of yesteryear.

If she doesn't put on a stellar performance at the conference she's dead meat and whoever gets Bum In Chair after her is going to be leading a divided party. The only way to solidify support in that situation is to go to the country and win. The track record on that gambit is not so good although John Major did in fact win an election after taking over from the Sainted Maggie. He couldn't do it twice though.

[calimac]

The notion of

Major didn't call an election immediately, or anything near it. He let the term run out (hoping that the party's poll ratings would recover sufficiently, which they barely did).

May calling the 2017 election was strictly voluntary on her part. She hadn't been expected to do it.

The previous new PMs during a government, in 1976 and 1963, also let the term run out before calling an election, for the same reason as Major. That despite the fact that in 1963, at least, the old PM's departure was distinctly under a cloud.

In fact, the last during-term new PM who immediately called an election was Eden in 1955, and that was about the least controversial succession of all time. He did it because it was getting reasonably close to the expiration date and there was no risk of losing.

So there aren't enough cases for a general rule of PM deposed resulting in a general election, and such cases as there are do not display it.

The Race Is On

[nojay]

I thought the challenges would start after the conference was behind them but it looks like it's Game On after the Chequers "let's all put the knives down" kumbayah session last week. Boris is shucking off his Ministerial overcoat in preparation for the leadership race to come since he can't really compete for the top job while holding down a Cabinet-level post under the PM he's planning to oust. Fun times.

[jack]

Agh, I really don't know what's likely to happen any more.

I deleted a long aside about the details, but I think what May's been doing is basically steering a middle course between the factions of her party, and refusing to commit herself until she absolutely has to. After all, it's better for her if she looks like she's had a term as prime minister rather than everything folding after a few months, and who knows -- maybe some stroke of fortune will dig her out of the mess.

I don't know what she personally wants, whether she's beholden to the "dismantle the protections, strip the state bare" financial interests, or if she has some genuinely ideological goal, or if she genuinely thinks a "some amount of brexit" would be better for the country. (Although if she did, she didn't campaign for it, she was on the remain side in the election!)

I don't think there's any way she can believe the "referendum is binding" spiel, she clearly has some other reason for driving for brexit.

I don't think placating DUP or even the brexiters is necessarily part of any solution she reaches. Probably some labour people will support her if she has some plan which is at all plausible :(

So the fact that she faced down the brexiters now makes me think she wants SOME sort of deal. If she genuinely wanted no deal at all, she could have just gone on letting the brexiters stall until she ran out the clock.

I'm guessing the sort of deal she proposed -- "mostly in, but with a bunch of exceptions that she thinks are good for us", is roughly what she'd actually like if she has the choice. But is also the proposal that commits her as little as possible, the minimum amount towards remain she can make without cutting off the possibility of a deal entirely, which gives her the most possible manoeuvring room domestically because it pisses off the brexiters the least amount possible given that she was going to move away from them, and gives just enough hope to remain to try to imply there might be more to come.

When europe point out that it's unacceptable, I don't know where she'll go. Now she's started to cave, will she go the rest of the way and pick a deal from the ones available (hopefully BINO)? Or will she decide that she's not willing to compromise and sleepwalk into no deal after all?

[jack]

I guess it's also possible that after eighteen months of the UK taking the piss, the government will find some proposal that isn't what EU have already offered but actually sounds reasonable, and we'll see whether the EU stick firm out of principle or spite, or if they're willing to consider it.

After all, the "EU will be intransigent to punish us" people may well have a point, we just haven't got to the point of the UK offering any deal they could even possible consider accepting however magnanimous they were feeling.

Theresa May

[andrewducker]

I can't find the article now, but I definitely read something a few months ago saying that Theresa May has pretty-much no imagination, and once given a task will carry it out, no matter what.

She's been told "Make Brexit happen", and now she will make sure it does, to the best of her ability.

The main question now, is whether the EU will be willing to bend the Four Freedoms for us even slightly. My guess is no, at which point we can either go for Norway or Canada. The former will enrage the Brexiters (and be pointless), the latter will destroy the economy (because we just aren't set up for that level of change, if nothing else. Plus we're a service economy nowadays.)

[redbird]

It looks as though a depressing number of people in politics, on both sides of the Atlantic, are prepared to tear things down so "I will be remembered!" —as one of the title characters in Sondheim's Assassins put it. (I could try to find a libretto and remind myself which one/confirm my vague hunch that it's the one who tries to assassinate FDR because his belly hurts, but it seems more appropriate to leave the question open.)