I don't think the Senate wants to repeal Obamacare

[andrewducker]

I've been paying attention to the many attempts to repeal the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare)* and what's been really obvious in the last year is that the Republican majority don't actually want to repeal it.

There seem to be three different groups:
1) Republican Senators who can see that Obamacare is actually about as right-wing a way to have universal healthcare as you can get**, and don't actually want to get rid of it.
2) Republican Senators who may or may not be in favour of Obamacare, but can see that their constituents are now attached to their healthcare, will be furious if they lose it, and only have a slim majority which they are terrified of losing at the next election.
3) Republican Senators who really are against Obamacare.

The problem here is that all three groups need to pretend that they're in category (3), because they've spent the last decade telling their supporters how terrible Obamacare is, to the point where there are voters who support all of the individual parts of the bill, and even the "Affordable Care Act" but will be will be against Obamacare.

And the longer the ACA exists, and the more that voters understand about it (as is happening the more Republicans talk about it) the more popular it gets. To the point where a majority of the public are now in favour of it***. But the Republican Party now has a central point of belief that "Obamacare is bad".

Which means that in order to be against it, but not actually remove it, we're left with a few Republican Senators taking it in turns to vote against repeal, on various largely spurious grounds. Being very careful to say "Oh no, I hate Obamacare as much as the next person. But I can't vote to repeal it this time, because of a minor provision. Maybe next time." - and then the next time a _different_ Republican Senator can do exactly the same thing.

None of which means that Obamacare is safe. It's balanced on a bunch of senators believing that if they repeal it they'll lose their jobs. So every time a repeal bill is put forward they have to be persuaded _again_ that the public still cares. And I am very grateful for my US friends who are involved in getting people to phone their representatives every time it comes up.

But I am moderately hopeful that we'll make it through to the mid-terms without it being repealed. Because I don't think that a majority of the senate actually wants it to be.****


*There were over 50 of these between 2011 and 2014, goodness knows how many we're up to now
**Not surprising, as it's very similar to RomneyCare.
***But only 17% of registered Republicans. It's the swing voters who have moved.
****But don't trust me. This is just my impression from what I've read from, frankly, a long way away.

Comments

[randomdreams]

A difficult proviso to this is Senators who have chosen, as I believe one of mine has, to sacrifice their senatorial careers for ideology, so are enthusiastic about doing things that will almost certainly cost them their re-election.

[altamira16]

Our Republican is in charge of the fundraising committee, and they are not getting funds because they are not keeping their promise.

[andrewducker]

Cheers, stolen!

[danieldwilliam]

Are you familiar with the reconciliation process?

[andrewducker]

Only vaguely. It's how House and Senate bills get merged isn't it?

[danieldwilliam]

It's a budgeting process that can be used (once per year) to make changes to substantive policy in the Senate on a simple majority with limited opportunities for debate or delay. I think the UK equivilent would be a guillotine motion

The US federal government's financial year ends on 30th September. So the Republicans have until the 30th of September to use the reconcilliation process to get an ACA repeal through the senate. They would like to use the same process in the next financial year for tax reform.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reconciliation_(United_States_Congress)

[aerye]

From you lips to...as the saying goes.

And in the meantime, we keep lighting up the phones.

[calimac]

This sounds plausible, but don't attribute to craftiness what can be explained by stupidity. I doubt the Republicans as a whole don't really want to do it; it's just that there are a few with enough sanity left not to want to jump in over the edge. Or maybe McCain and Murkowski, in particular, are tired of being screwed over by the party. (See what happened to Murkowski in the 2010 primary.) Rand Paul is a man who has elevated being pissy into a moral principle. That leaves Collins.

Notice also that it's always the same 3 or 4, not a tag team effort? That's one clue. Also, if the leadership were really just pretending to hate the ACA, they wouldn't give the game away by bribing Murkowski by offering to let her state keep it, or be so desperate in trying to bribe her.

[andrewducker]

Thank you, that was helpful!

[drplokta]

If it gets to the end of this week without being repealed, then it’s game over for repeal. The reconciliation process through which the Senate can repeal it with 50 votes instead of 60 votes expires on the 30th of September.

[andrewducker]

Thank you, useful to know!