A couple of (disconnected) thoughts on Brexit

[andrewducker]

1) It's not as simple as just overriding a referendum. Sure, the government can just choose to ignore the result, but the referendum was called because voters were abandoning other parties and moving to UKIP. And the people who voted Leave had a significant proportion of people who felt totally disenfranchised by the existing system, and like their vote didn't count. I remember the paranoia of the Leave voters who were convinced that no matter how the votes went They wouldn't let a Leave victory happen. Is the answer really to prove the paranoid right? Because what that gets you is riots, and a massive swing to UKIP (and worse). When we already have a majority government on only 35% of the vote, pissing off 52% of the population sounds...unwise.

2) Also, here's some stats relating Scottish voting in the Independence Referendum to Scottish voting in the European Referendum:


Which shows that the relationship is...nothing at all. Kinda fascinating in its own right. Which would mean that there will be an awful lot of people in IndyRef 2 who voted to stay in the UK but also in Europe, and would explain why the polls showed a 2:1 ratio in favour of Independence a few days ago.

(With gratitude to Kate Cross her crunching the numbers. She points out that some more analysis (maybe weight by population in areas, or get smaller area-level data) and considering the slightly different make-up of the electorate for each referendum would be useful areas for further study.)

Comments

[rmc28]

I agree with you that finding some clever way to ignore the referendum result without another election is a terrible idea and just going to lead to more trouble. I also think the referendum was a terrible idea and having another one is even worse.

If we had another general election (following the provisions for ending a govt in the fixed-term parliaments act) and if that election was won by a party or coalition campaigning on an explicitly pro-EU basis, then I think you could say that such an election overrode the referendum result. But even then, I think at best we might just scrape not having to leave the EU (... and the longer the leadership vacuum goes on the less likely even that tiny chance seems), and all our negotiating power has been pissed away.

(And I am part of the failure of the political class generally to recognise the anger of the 52% and to engage with them in the last decade in any way that could have made them feel less like tearing the whole thing down. I don't think continuing that failure is a good idea.)

A quibble: we have majority government on 35% of the vote, and a referendum result with 52% of the vote, not 52% of the electorate and certainly not 52% of the population (children, EU citizens, etc).

[cmcmck]

You and I hold pretty much the same views.

What we really need is for everyone to STFU for twelve months, but they won't, of course!

[birguslatro]

Is there anyone in parliament who's seriously suggesting the vote should be ignored? Cameron has said it shouldn't be and presumably the leave faction in his party will be taking charge and implemented the exit.

Quibble follow-up

[hilarita]

Indeed. It's just over 1/3 of the potential electorate, and just over 1/4 of the entire population.

[myka]

by any chance did you make that graph in R? just wondering

[andrewducker]

Kate says that that's what she used.

And that she recommends R studio.

[marahmarie]

who felt totally disenfranchised by the existing system, and like their vote didn't count.

Don't you think that when an entire political philosophy is based upon racism, xenophobia and general hatred of the Other that maybe their vote shouldn't count? I mean, votes from people with that sort of politics counted in pre-WW II Germany, OK? Everyone was so fair and democratic about the whole thing and look how it turned out.

I hate to say Brexit on your side and Trump on mine is history repeating itself but it's history repeating itself. The last 100 years taught the vast majority of people nothing. No, I'll correct that: if anything, it taught them that if the ruling fascists of 80 years ago had only been a bit smarter or at least better tacticians, life would be much better for everyone like themselves now. Ah, the good old days, when race wars could've easily determined who rules the world, if only...

[myka]

Yep, that's what I use too, on the (now) rare occasions I use R. Though I think I solved a tricky work problem using R today :-)