Why I find most conspiracy theories unlikely.

[andrewducker]

I do not find it unlikely that small groups of people get together to increase their share of the wealth, or otherwise work together to further their aims.

What I mostly find unlikely is the kind of conspiracy that involves huge numbers of people, or stays private for long periods of time.

If your conspiracy theory involves 4 people who keep no records, then it's possible that they could all keep their mouths shut, and that you don't have someone inside the conspiracy who either develops a conscience, or isn't smart enough to cover their tracks. If your conspiracy theory assumes the existence of thousands of NASA employees, contractors, and others who have seen the plans, and must last for decades without any of them ever deciding to go public, then my belief levels are so close to zero as to be indistinguishable.

So I find price-fixing conspiracies entirely possible, but I also expect them to come out after a few years, because information _leaks_ constantly. I don't tend to believe things like "Big oil bought up the recipe for a car that runs on water and buried it." or "Phone batteries stop working after 18 months because the manufacturers want to force you to buy new phones." because they require every car/phone company to work together, as well as the entire scientific community carrying out research in those areas, with none of them ever deciding to spill the beans.

And, having worked in private companies for most of my adult life, they just aren't that competent.

Comments

[azurelunatic]

Your first sentence appears to be missing a word.

I am a lot more willing to accept "it is possible to make phone batteries that last longer than 18 months, but currently the materials and manufacture are more expensive than the consumer market will bear" for some reason...

[pseudomonas]

On the phone thing, barring a few bastard manufacturers, they're forcing you to buy new *batteries*, for maybe 5% the cost of a new phone. They may be hoping you'll buy a new phone (and making it easy to buy one) as a super-expensive way of obtaining a battery, but they're not actually forcing it. (yeah, this is a bugbear of mine, can you tell)?

[andrewducker]

Thanks - fixed!

And over on LJ someone said:

I'm surprised rechargeable lithium-tech batteries last as long as they do. Every charge and discharge cycle in a rechargeable battery involves making highly energetic electrochemical changes to solid and gel substrates and with lithium that involves more energy per volume and mass than other solid-state chemistries. Eventually that's going to destroy support structures in cathodes and anodes or otherwise disrupt the cell's operation. Heat and oxidation don't help.

The longest-lasting rechargeable batteries I know of are nickel-iron which use potassium hydroxide as an electrolyte. They are very tolerant of overcharging, temperature variation etc. but they're heavy, bulky, don't hold a charge very well (i.e. self-discharge) and they are eye-wateringly expensive. They will survive in regular use for over 20 years and more though.

I do see intermittent research articles go past, talking about advances in lifespan, but mostly at a very theoretical level, or in the lab, not things that are commercialised.

[matgb]

While I, broadly, agree, some phones and manufacturers make solid state units with no separate battery, and it can require specialist kit to even open them up.

Specific example: Nokia N8, released 3ish years ago at the same time as the iPhone 4 (and, palpably, better than same apart from lack of apps). I got mine two years ago last week and finally upgraded to an Android over the weekend.

But my N8 still has 2 weeks battery life, when the reviews said "Nokia are very confident of the battery in this so replacing it isn't really an option" I think they were right.

And, FWIW, if I didn't want a few specific apps and didn't have a contract worth renewing I'd have happily kept it for another few years, awesome hardware, going to get a paygo sim and keep use it as a backup/camera.

Not having one, not sure, but I think the iPhone is now a solid case as well, although Applie stores'll probably fix them for a hefty fee.

One thing I dislike about my new Samsung is it feels cheaper, the build quality is nowhere near as good, even if the internal tech is better.

[pseudomonas]

The non-removable-batteries thing was what I had in mind by "a few bastard manufacturers". The iphone is (AIUI) openable by Apple, but designed to be make battery replacement near-impossible by users. but I find it hard to see why e.g. using non-standard screws to deter users from replacing their own batteries is in anyone's interests but the manufacturers.