The world is slowly getting better

[andrewducker]

(US data, via from here)

I am fairly convinced that the current flurry of anti-woman and anti-homosexual drives by the Republicans (and equivalents elsewhere) are because they have realised that they are _losing_ and this is their last ditch attempt to hold on to the America they know and love. More and more of the people that are against marriage equality are old, more and more of the people that are in favour are young, and the switchover is happening as older people die off, because their culture is just not being passed on*.

So, while the current backlash is frustrating and annoying, it doesn't worry me in the long-term**. Twenty years from now people will look at this last-ditch attempt to stop gay rights the same way as we look at the riots over integration in schools in 1960s USA**.

*The same is true in the UK - church attendance in children and teenagers is down by 90% over the last two decades.
**Which isn't to say that the anger and work that's being done isn't vitally necessary - just that the weight is now on the side of the people doing that work.

Comments

[teresafloyd]

I am fairly convinced that the current flurry of anti-woman and anti-homosexual drives by the Republicans (and equivalents elsewhere) are because they have realised that they are _losing_ and this is their last ditch attempt to hold on to the America they know and love.

I think that you may be right. As their numbers shrink, the crazy is standing out more and more. And more and more of their number are distancing themselves from the worst of it.

[coth.livejournal.com]

I think you are probably right. But I believe I saw figures recently that show, although the law and public rhetoric has changed, statistically speaking US schools are just as racially segrgated now as they were then.

[andrewducker]

The US has appalling problems, whereby poverty is endemic in some areas, and connected to race in an intractable manner. Fixing that, sadly, isn't a question of preventing companies from being actively racist, it needs wealth redistribution and a level of socialism that the US is currently unwilling to tolerate.

[widgetfox.livejournal.com]

This I agree with :-)

I think it's true here too. People go into paroxysms of political analysis about Cameron's support for gay marriage and what it means for his conservatism or otherwise, but I think it's very simple. He's our age. Gay marriage would be pretty much as normal a concept to him as it is to us. I know there are people of our generation and younger who are against, but I believe they are (a) increasingly rare, and (b) have specific reasons (such as religious beliefs) rather than taking it from culture in general.

[selki.livejournal.com]

b) specific reasons (such as religious beliefs)

This is why I'm worried that the seeming-inevitable progress towards acceptance of LBGT etc., isn't, especially looking at the rising birthrate within conservative religious populations.

[widgetfox.livejournal.com]

this is their last ditch attempt to hold on to the America they know and love

I love the compassion and understanding in this.

[selki.livejournal.com]

I read it as irony, but I'm just here via firecat, not a regular reader.

[andrewducker]

It was both. I _do_ think that they have an ideal picture of America (stuck somewhere in the 1950s), and that they love it and want to protect it.

I just think that that image is false and toxic.

[selki.livejournal.com]

Yes.

[andrewducker]

I feel that way about people generally. I get very annoyed by people who don't have enough empathy to understand that some people feel differently to them. That some people _really do think_ that abortion is killing babies. That some people _really do think_ that trans women are men in drag. That some people _really do think_ that God has spoken against homosexuality.

I don't agree with their views, but that doesn't mean that those aren't perfectly holdable views, by perfectly ordinary people. And it boggles me that many people can't see that.

[widgetfox.livejournal.com]

YES THIS. Thank you.

[widgetfox.livejournal.com]

Not only do I think this is a deeply moral position to take, but it also seems the only tenable position that one can take and still be in a useful dialogue, and I think that being in a useful dialogue is important.

[luckylove.livejournal.com]

Then you've got this.
"Ukrainian crackdown: ACT NOW
Ukraine thinks it can get a sweet deal with the European Union - AND pass a law that makes saying "gay" illegal? We can't let them get away with this. We have 5 days to tell President Yanukovych to speak out against the laws."

I'm not sure how much good signing this petition will do but at least it's raising awareness.

[ckd]

I saw a comment a while back that said the increased vigor of the anti-marriage-equality folks was like the point in a video game boss fight where once the boss's health bar hits a certain threshold it starts flashing red and increases its attack speed....

[zz]

"First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win."

[steer.livejournal.com]

Hmm... while I hope you are right, I'd worry that we might be looking at the same phenomenon that made the hippies think that by the time their generation was in charge drugs would be legalised and laws would be legalised.

The graph you show is a remarkably fast switch of opinion... much too fast IMHO to be due only to the old dying and the young replacing them. In the ten year period approximately 14% of the US population will move from non-voting age to voting age (summing 10-19 year olds from here)
http://www.censusscope.org/us/chart_age.html
Approximately 82% of the population are voting age. That gives a maximum possible shift of 17% (14/82) which would occur if 100% of people dying were against homosexual marriage and 100% of people entering voting age were in favour -- of that shift we see 12%.
Unless I have my maths wrong this would require something like 84% of people dying now to be against homosexual marriage and 84% of people entering the voting pool to be for it (giving an average chance of 1 death and 1 new voter a 70% chance to switch "the right way").

In fact the real figures are nothing like that:
http://andrewgelman.com/2009/06/future_trends_f_1/

So, for me, if the above graph is correct, it shows effects both from conservative beliefs literally dying but also metaphorically dying -- that is, people are changing their minds.

[steer.livejournal.com]

Note that the maths above is pretty approximate (I've ignored population growth and simplified some assumptions) but I think gives you convincing proof that what you're seeing is genuinely a phenomenon related to people changing their minds.

[andrewducker]

Sorry, I wasn't trying to claim that _all_ of the change was happening from a changeover of the generations.

I'd also expect that homosexuality would be an easier sell than drugs, as many drugs _do_ have dangers, and it's much easier to say awful things about drug dealers than it is against the friends and relatives of Daily Mail readers who happen to be gay.

[steer.livejournal.com]

I guess more than drugs in specific there was in the 60s and 70s an attitude that when "their generation" was in charge things would be very different -- and to some extent they are very different. To some extent I guess I felt the same when I was at university... "almost everyone I know seems to be a left-leaning small-l liberal so that is how things will be in the future".

[khbrown.livejournal.com]

This aspect of the world is getting better. But income inequality has increased over the same time period.

[apostle-of-eris.livejournal.com]

I'm really curious about the bend in the line at '09.

[andrewducker]

It could be in 2010, when the It Gets Better project launched and Don't Ask Don't Tell was repealed.