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[personal profile] andrewducker

Date: 2012-05-24 11:44 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] steer.livejournal.com
From that "medical devices" article.

Of over 1,700 devices checked, only 3% were found to be accurate to within three seconds. One in five were off by more than 30 minutes; one ultrasound machine was running 42 years (and some minutes) early. The average error was a staggering 24 minutes.

Ahem... If *only* the ultrasound machine was wrong and every other machine was exactly correct the average error is already 12,985 minutes. I think the article has missed out some details. I guess the "average" is not the best measure here.

Date: 2012-05-24 12:04 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] danieldwilliam.livejournal.com
Kickstarter is not different from any any other form of raising finance or getting paid. Not in terms of the potential to lose money as a project sponsor or backer.

It’s all around asymetrical risk or the lack of it.

If your kickstarter is to raise $25k and in exchange you’ll spend a year writing a book, then no one can lose. If the deal is that you finish the book, you might lose and have to hand back the money or trash your reputation so much that you can’t ever raise finance this way again.

For something more complicated, if the obligations that you as an artist enter into don’t match the financing, then you have a potential problem. The most obvious example being that you are using the Kickstater finance to pay deposits for services like studio rental or backing musicians and hope to settle the balance of the bills from record sales and you either don’t finish the album or it doesn’t sell then you’re in trouble.

I think in Palmer’s case the exposure to unmatched risk is that servicing the mulititude of slightly open ended commitments might, or might not be covered by the $1m funding.

So all good fun and games.

But fundamentally no different in some ways than traditional project funding. You put some money in, you might get the project completed. You complete the project it might work. It works, you might be able to sell it. What feels different is that each art project doesn’t sit within a portfolio of other projects. There’s no cross subsidy of the Michael Jackson back catalogue for potentially break through artists.

I think the difference is the disintermediation of the financing model. The internets allows artists to connect with lots of small scale patrons.

I’m fascinated and very excited by the whole Kickstarter thing. It’s like Jeff Bezos happened to capitalism.

Date: 2012-05-24 12:06 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] naath.livejournal.com
Unless by "average" they mean "median" rather than "mean".

Date: 2012-05-24 12:17 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] steer.livejournal.com
That is possible but not the usual usage. I would always make it clear if that is what I meant.

Date: 2012-05-24 12:17 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] steer.livejournal.com
Heh... you'd imagine the "mode" would be "exactly on time".

Date: 2012-05-24 12:19 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] drdoug.livejournal.com
I can reproduce your calculation.

However, you're assuming that there weren't, say, two machines running 21 years fast, and they did the averaging in a particularly stupid (but obvious-looking) way.

Admittedly there's an obvious and simple single explanation for a machine running '42 years (and some minutes)' slow, which there isn't for two running 21 years fast.

Date: 2012-05-24 12:23 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] drdoug.livejournal.com
Nah - the obvious measure is rms error. Only bozos use abs/modulus. :-)

Date: 2012-05-24 12:31 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] steer.livejournal.com
That's true! Maybe this is what happened!

Date: 2012-05-24 12:40 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] bracknellexile.livejournal.com
Amanda Palmer's kickstarter confuses me. If she'd already shelled out $250K before it even started and is expecting, after raising $1M, to have a few tens of thousands to put in the bank (if she's lucky) then why was the original Kickstarter target only $100K? I appreciate that the more backers then the more her costs go up but presumably the costs scale with the number of backers and the tier prices are enough to cover the costs plus a little bit of profit. The $100K target seems infeasibly low and she, by the look of it, got lucky that she'll get about 10x that and it might, in the end, pay for itself.

Date: 2012-05-24 12:49 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] drdoug.livejournal.com
It is, after all, a universal law that any piece of work (comment, blog post, journal article) criticising mistakes made by others must contain at least one mostake itself,

Date: 2012-05-24 12:54 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] steer.livejournal.com
Maybe I should put in one known deliberate mostake into all my work as a kind of lightning conductor?

Date: 2012-05-24 01:03 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] drdoug.livejournal.com
It's worth a try if you're feeling brave, but I doubt the error gods would be impressed (at least, not the standard error gods) and would be likely to strike you anyway, and extra hard for hubris. The gourds are not mocked!

Date: 2012-05-24 01:14 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] danieldwilliam.livejournal.com
I believe introducing an error is what the weavers of Persian carpets used to do to ensure they never produced anything perfect.

Date: 2012-05-24 05:54 pm (UTC)
cyprinella: broken neon sign that reads "lies & fish" (Default)
From: [personal profile] cyprinella
Sounds right to me. Often at auctions I attend, an item might be started at $7 and get no bids. The auctioneer will then drop the starting bid to $3 and and the crowd ends up bidding the price up to $10.

Date: 2012-05-24 07:16 pm (UTC)

Date: 2012-05-25 07:22 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] theweaselking.livejournal.com
Also, a lot of the *costs* are dependent on people pledging more.

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