Keep Calm and Carry On

[andrewducker]

As I write this, there are 44 seats to announce and the Conservatives need 39 to get a majority. This seems somewhat unlikely, although I don't know exactly what areas are left, so I can't be sure.

However, even if we get a Tory government, it won't be the end of the world. No, I wouldn't vote for them. No, they aren't my idea of good government. But life would carry on, there are limits to what they can change in 4 years, and they're unlikely to roll back the minimum wage, halve the spending on the NHS or repeal the legislation allowing civil partnerships.

In short, the Tories are not demons from Hell, summoned to lay waste to Britain, but politicians who have different ideas about how to run the country - and would probably fit right into the Democrats in the USA. The level of panic I'm seeing seems to be more suitable for the former than the latter.

Now, if the BNP got in _then_ I'd be panicking.

Comments

[randomchris.livejournal.com]

Actually, I'd like to see the BNP get one MP (but no more) so that everyone could point and laugh at them at the start of each session of Parliament.

[missedith01.livejournal.com]

the Tories are not demons from Hell, summoned to lay waste to Britain

They haven't got started yet! I would say the minimum wage and the NHS at least would be at risk if they had a healthy majority.

I also seem to remember a lot of laying waste to my part of Britain in the early eighties ...

OK, I don't actually believe they're demons from hell ... that much I'll give you :-)


A hung parliament (maybe) - I can hardly believe it! (((bounce)))

[momentsmusicaux.livejournal.com]

You did read that Indie article you linked to, no?

They really are.

[missedith01.livejournal.com]

LJ ate my post ... what I was trying to say is that there are communities where the last Tory govt with a large majority DID lay waste ... and this (as well as a little tribalism of course) is why they are so genuinely feared and abhored by some people.

I would say a large tory majority would put the min wage and the NHS at risk.

They aren't demons from hell tho, I'll give you that. :-)

[heron61.livejournal.com]

As a US resident, I'm clearly less familiar with the Tories, but from that article and other things I've seen, they don't seem quite as bad a the US Republican party, but they still deeply scary. I'm glad you folks seem to have been spared a Tory majority. A deadlocked government looks like a vast improvement over that option.

[theweaselking.livejournal.com]

The Tories are basically the US Democratic Party, except that in the UK version Kucinich actually has a *real* party to work with and so has left the Democrats.

[heron61.livejournal.com]

I remember many stories of Britain under Margaret Thatcher and between that and this story, that sounds like a rather overoptimistic analysis. To me, they sound like the more moderate US Republicans, and from my PoV, even moderate Republicans are pretty darn scary.

[ninebelow.livejournal.com]

There are 14 London seats to declare and Labour should be able to pick up at least half of them.

[ninebelow.livejournal.com]

Now 38 of which they need 37.

[burkesworks.livejournal.com]

Still to come we've got;

Oldham East & Saddleworth
Berwick-upon-Tweed
Blyth Valley
Wansbeck
Fermanagh & South Tyrone
Bethnal Green & Bow
Brent Central
Buckingham
East Ham
West Ham
Leyton & Wanstead
Lewisham Deptford

...all of which are seats where the Conservatives have between nought and buckley's chance. This Parliament's going to be more hung than Ron Jeremy, and just as ugly.

[a-pawson.livejournal.com]

Yes, there do seem to be mostly safe seats left to declare. The current BBC prediction is

Tories 306
Labour 265
Lib Dems 52
Unionists 10
SDLP 3

Since it seems highly unlikely anyone would form an alliance with the nationalists or Sinn Fein that give us:

Tories + Unionists = 316
Labour + SDLP + Lib Dem = 320

Interesting, but could Clegg really support Brown? I suspect not, so the real question is can Cameron govern with a minority or somehow bring Clegg on side?

[robhu.livejournal.com]

From the Guardian half an hour ago: "Clegg just arrived at Lib Dem HQ and essentially said that the Conservatives should have the first shot at forming a new government. He said he stood by his comments during the campaign that the party with the most votes and most seats should be allowed the first bite at forming a government. "

[marrog.livejournal.com]

He also said however that electoral reform was the key principle at stake. I can't see the Cons going for that, and my bet is that the Lib Dems are hoping they won't.

[fjm.livejournal.com]

roll back the minimum wage, halve the spending on the NHS or repeal the legislation allowing civil partnerships.

The only one of those that's safe is the NHS and that's only because Cameron appreciates it personally. For the rest, you are kidding yes? The Tories have been complaining about the minimum wage for ever, and gay marriage could prove a useful sop to the loony wing.

[a-pawson.livejournal.com]

The Conservatives have been in favour of the minimum wage since 2005. It was in their manifesto in 2006 election and has been ever since. I really can't see them repealing civil partnerships either.

I'm no fan of the Tory party, but whilst they may well lower taxes for the rich or cut public spending harder than the others were proposing, they are not about to start torturing puppies in the street.

[missedith01.livejournal.com]

There's more than one way to skin a puppy tho: for example I would be surprised if a first tory term resulted in complete repeal of the min wage laws but I would expect them to allow it to lag behind inflation and wither naturally, regardless of what their manifesto says.

[pete stevens (from livejournal.com)]

Of course what matters is the after tax pay in real terms. Raising the minimum wage and NI and not increasing the tax bands all at the same time may or may not be worse than increasing tax bands with inflation, not increasing NI and a slower rate of growth of the minimum wage.

However, I'd have to do some sums to try and work out the answers.

[khbrown.livejournal.com]

Only because there are no votes in torturing pupppies in the streets ;-)

[robhu.livejournal.com]

In short, the Tories are not demons from Hell, summoned to lay waste to Britain, but politicians who have different ideas about how to run the country - and would probably fit right into the Democrats in the USA. The level of panic I'm seeing seems to be more suitable for the former than the latter.
I agree with you, there's a level of panic going on in LJ land that isn't very connected to reality.