Relatively speaking

[andrewducker]

[Poll #1332879]
Stolen from a poll here by james_nicoll - apart from the third question which was inspired by drplokta.

Comments

[likeneontubing.livejournal.com]

I said about the same to the 3rd question, mainly because of the whole global warming thing, which will affect most of the 3rd world equatorial countries much, much more than it will us, so although things will get better all round, I think this will counteract it.

[fjm.livejournal.com]

The third one is really going to depend on the trajectory of Aids.

[robhu.livejournal.com]

Also probably whether the global climate changes such that their lands become less habitable, less easy to grow crops / get fresh water on, etc.

[fjm.livejournal.com]

The archive hour on radio 4 this evening is about the area around Kings Cross in the 1920s thru the 1970s.

[communicator.livejournal.com]

I'm amazed at the optimism of almost everyone (except me)

[autopope.livejournal.com]

30 years ago, a billion people lived without adequate food and clean water.

Today a billion people live without adequate food and clean water.

The difference? There are nearly twice as many of us on the planet. As a percentage of population, the serious poverty level has fallen significantly.

[communicator.livejournal.com]

Oh aye, it's a genuine trajectory, but I don't think you can extrapolate it

[autopope.livejournal.com]

The third one is a "definitely better off" as long as you remember the third world includes China and India. Both of which are playing catch-up at an astounding rate.

Sub-Saharan Africa, not so hot -- although a generation may be enough to see a turnaround.

[andrewducker]

Absolutely. I don't know whether sea-levels and water shortages will hold them back too much, as both will disproportionately affect them, but I still expect to see major decreases in differentials there.

[drplokta]

No one is expecting sea level to do much over a mere thirty years; it's the fifty to a hundred year timescale that's causing concern.

[andrewducker]

Good point!

[the-locster.livejournal.com]

By 'people' I assume you mean people in the UK? Basically in 30 years you'll have collasping ecosystems, drying up aquifiers in the US and the continuing drought in Oz (and new droughts) causing the food supply to implode. There will be wars over water, oil and other resources and wars over land disputes driven by demand of resources.

China will emerge as /the/ superpower, supplanting the US. The middle east and Africa will still be a mess. South America isn't looking too rosy either. Basically if you want to know what lies ahead then look to the past and multiply it by 100.

OTOH Kurzweil thinks capture of solar energy is on an exponential curve and that we will be living in a utopia in 30 years, and with the emergence of a technological singularity at around 2045ish making any guesses at what happens next nigh on impossible. According to his wiki page he thinks the entire mass of the solar system will have been converted into a giant computer for doing whatever it is tech singularities do. I'd like to take this opportunity to suggest multidimensional tetris :)

[andrewducker]

Well, exactly - as usual it's a race between resource usage and resource-creation - if we can produce more than we use then we can avoid fighting over the resources, otherwise it's WAAARGH!

[lizzie-and-ari.livejournal.com]

Better off in what sense?

[random-redhead.livejournal.com]

It is and will be about the same because they change what the low standard is. 30 years ago poor people didn't have televisions etc. Now it is a neccessity of life.
People still feel as poor, but they own more crap. It is all consumer crap. TV DVD Mobile phone.
The third world will come on a great distance from where it is now but the west will advance also, so there will still be a huge gulf.

[endless-psych.livejournal.com]

In real, absolute terms, everyone will most likely be better off. In relative terms differences between classes/countries/continents are just as likely to widen.