Interesting Links for 13-01-2021
Jan. 13th, 2021 12:00 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
andrewducker- Americans believe a terrifying amount of dangerous nonsense
- (tags:usa politics conspiracy lies belief )
- The only solution to the damage Social Networks do
- (tags:socialnetworking funny comic )
- It looks like the UK strategy of having three months between first and second vaccinations is not based on the science
- https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1349006700397932553.html
(tags:vaccination UK Doom ) - Leith development responds to increase in demand for homes on tram route
- (tags:edinburgh trams housing )
- This is how sexy roleplay is supposed to work, right?
- (tags:sex roleplaying funny video )
- Who Invented the Alphabet?
- (tags:Egypt middle_east history language writing viaFanf )
- Shut Offices And Stop Blaming People For Lockdown Failing, Says Government Scientific Adviser
- (tags:pandemic UK )
- Covid in Scotland: Most app users not uploading positive test alert
- (tags:pandemic apps OhForFucksSake )
- A list of things the SNP could do to frustrate parliament if they are denied a referendum
- (tags:politics UK independence Scotland )
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It looks like the UK strategy of having three months between first and second vaccinations is not ba
Date: 2021-01-13 02:30 pm (UTC)Looking at that graph, it shows a steady increase in "number of people in placebo group who caught covid" throughout the trial.
For the first two weeks, there's about the same number of vaccinated people catching the disease, the two graphs overlay on each other.
After 2 weeks, the graph of "vaccinated people who catch covid" massively levels off and only a couple of people a week catch it, rather than the ~20 per week who were catching it to start with.
After 3 weeks, people get a second dose, and the graph levels off further. Over most of the rest of the trial, placebo group continue to catch covid at a steady rate, and vaccinated group catch covid at a rate that's about 5% of that.
You can't really tell exactly when the graphs level off, because only two people in the vaccinated group catch covid in week 3, and only another two people in week 4.
But you CAN see that the graph clearly levels off after week 2 BEFORE the second dose. You can't see the exact slope because there's not enough data points. It's ABOUT 90%. But it might be 80%. Or it might be 95%. You can't tell.
So the really pessimistic figure is to average ALL of the deaths between first and second dose and say, "it provides about 50% protection". That's what they've proved by the extremely rigorous standard of "what you could definitively commit to looking for in advance". But most people, looking at a rate of "first week, 20 people, second week 20 people, third week 2 people", would conclude that the vaccine had a big effect after two weeks.
This guy is right that the person who replied to HIM (who may have been some sort of scientific advisor, or may not, I'm not sure?) was quoting figures from week 4, after the second dose, and assuming without proof that they represent protection from the first dose and the second dose hasn't had much effect yet. But you can clearly see on the graph that the slope in week 3 and the slope in week 4 is about the same. So that person might have been wrong, but this person is wrong that there isn't any evidence.
I'm not sure if they just missed that looking at the graph, or if they were inclined to bias.
I feel like if what the country were doing was OBVIOUSLY wrong we would have seen more outrage by people who DO study vaccines. An informal impression from people who seem to have some experience is that a longer delay between doses almost always provides more protection at the end, there's not a big risk that just because it hasn't been tested it wouldn't work.[1] But that we don't really know how much protection the first dose gives -- that graph estimates 90%, but it's based on 2-4 data points, so that's not a very precise estimate. And there are a lot of trade-offs about society not biology -- the risk of people getting infected before a booster dose, or moving away and forgetting to get it. So I don't think anyone is certain enough to pin themselves down to saying we should definitely go for first does or not, but I don't think the either side is ignoring the science. Personally I would go for first doses (but I'm really, really not an expert)
[1] I was very suspicious at this person saying 'presumably they tested it the vaccine in earlier phases and discovered that 3 weeks was the best gap'. Almost certainly 3 weeks was the SHORTEST gap they thought they could get away with, to get it trialled as fast as possible so it could be rolled out.
Re: It looks like the UK strategy of having three months between first and second vaccinations is no
Date: 2021-01-13 02:42 pm (UTC)100 μg dose
Baseline 0.9
Day 7 1.2
Day 21 1,778 (NO 2nd dose given)
Day 28 1,260
Day 35
(Also, the WHO, Dr Fauci, and the manufacturers have all said they don't advise it.)
Re: It looks like the UK strategy of having three months between first and second vaccinations is no
Date: 2021-01-13 02:57 pm (UTC)A list of things the SNP could do to frustrate parliament if they are denied a referendum
Date: 2021-01-13 02:44 pm (UTC)I feel like if I were living in Scotland my opinion would depend more on whether I trusted the Scottish government to negotiate a competent situation for an independent Scotland (both, negotiating sensibly with the rest of the UK, and not jumping without some idea what they were jumping into). But I feel like the last year would only have pushed me more into preferring the scottish govt to the uk one!
Re: A list of things the SNP could do to frustrate parliament if they are denied a referendum
Date: 2021-01-13 02:51 pm (UTC)Re: A list of things the SNP could do to frustrate parliament if they are denied a referendum
Date: 2021-01-13 02:55 pm (UTC)