Dominic Cummings theory/prediction

[andrewducker]

Biden said "sort the Good Friday Agreement or no trade deal".

Johnson knows how fucked we'll be without a trade deal of some kind.

Cummings wanted to go full steam ahead and assume the other side would blink first (a tactic he's espoused in the past)

Johnson has realised how fucked he'd be if we have food riots.

So Cummings is out and over the next week we'll magically find ourselves with a deal.

One that sucks compared to membership of the EU, but at least some kind of a deal.

Comments

[calimac]

I was uncertain whether "Cummings is out" was something that had happened or that you were predicting to happen, so I checked the UK news and found that it had. Hah. Best quote about Cummings I found in these articles, “They say if you want a friend in politics, get a dog – well, Cummings would kick the dog as well.”

[andrewducker]

He is so utterly untrustworthy. Someone who understand the value of nothing, as far as I can tell.

[calimac]

Like Jared Kushner, except intermittently competent.

[rmc28]

Oh, he understands the value to him of lots of things.

[rhythmaning]

That makes sense. But it would have been predictable months ago.

Were they *really* betting everything on Trump?!

Because a deal with Trump (and none with the EU) would have been so shit (and chlorinated too) that it'd have had the same effect.

[andrewducker]

I think they were hoping to use Trump as, at least, leverage.

[soon_lee]

I'm still shaking my head at how damaging inept governance has been (and continues to be).

[andrewducker]

People with no actual understanding of geopolitics, and no interest in doing the work.

[aldabra]

I think they were betting everything on Trump, and I think Trump had enough of an eye for a deal that he would have played along until we were committed and then screwed us over massively. I think we've dodged several bullets with this election result.

Did you see Biden's adviser calling Boris a shapeshifting creep? They're not predisposed to do him favours. Good.

[autopope]

That's my reading of the situation too, except I think Boris is so inept he might argue his way into not getting a trade deal even though he goes into negotiations with the sincere intention of asking for one.

[andrewducker]

He really is rubbish.

[angelofthenorth]

I'm thinking that Cummings will try to blow up the trade talks by showing that boris is arguing in bad faith.

[theandrewhickey]

I think we'll end up with a two year extension, like the EU offered us ages ago, except that Johnson will insist on not calling it an extension.
And then in January, we get Prime Minister Gove or Rees Mogg or something as the Tory headbangers realise what's happened, and the cycle starts all over again.

The flock knows a fellow called Gove...

[hairyears]

This is... The second most likely outcome, after crashing-out or bumbling out with No Deal.

The prospect of Gove in Number Ten is horrifying: among other things, he is hostile to the Good Friday Agreement and has been since its inception.

So we'll replace Boris with someone who is *consistently* stupid.

[jack]

I am really confused. I think Cummings really believes he's some strategic genius who can outmanoeuvre everyone. But I don't know why that translates into doubling down on hard Brexit more now. Did he really think getting an American trade deal was going to sell Brexit as a success? Did he really think that?? Did Johnson believe this? Or just need a lieutenant with some plan however bad?

Or was he deliberately scheming for hard Brexit? Even if he's stupid or corrupt, that doesn't seem to fit either. So I don't understand

[andrewducker]

This article is the one that sums him up best for me.
https://unherd.com/2019/08/dominic-cummings-is-no-chicken/

I think he was expecting the EU to give us a better deal than they were ever going to. And that having Trump as a backstop meant that they'd think we could cope with No Deal, so they'd have to give us a good deal.

I think he was completely wrong. But such is life.

[jack]

Yeah, I think it must be something like that. But to me it seemed SO obvious that there was no deal which the EU were going to divide the different freedoms, and SO obvious that a deal with a dysfunctional country on the other side of an ocean wasn't going to help, that I couldn't believe the govt were looking for that. I guess a combination "there was more flex in the EU position that I realised" and "Cummings was even less competent than I could imagine".

Like, I might have expected the EU to bend at the last minute if we were asking for something ridiculous but possible. But I thought they were pretty clear that we were just asking for the moon and giving no indication what we might actually accept. So much I couldn't see how even Cummings could think otherwise. But I guess either he's just THAT out of touch, or he knows something I don't know, but that was very far from enough

[hairyears]

Thank you, that article has useful insights.

[mountainkiss]

I think that at least two things going on here are:

(1) His personality seems to be driven by aggression. All he can do with those around him is fight, regardless of whether or not it's going to get the outcome he wants.

(2) He thinks he's playing a very long game - root and branch reform of all the country's institutions over half a century - and either does not care at all about the collateral damage to the country en route or, possibly, thinks it's a feature as it hastens decline.

The Cummings and goings of Dom...

[hairyears]

Cummings is a tactical genius in the Dark Arts of campaigning: that he considers himself a strategic genius is his downfall.

As for what else he might be - egotist, manipulative psychopath, the sort of nasty little man who makes himself useful to powerful men - I would urge a degree of caution: he may well be a nihilist, with a thin layer of rationalisations over a seething urge to destroy people, institutions, parties, power structures, communities and countries.

[mountainkiss]

I now tend to think the evidence is trending against it. Frost is doubling down, No. 10 is (i) sending out hardline signals and (ii) trying to reconnect with the parliamentary party, who want no deal, and they're about to run out of time.

[andrewducker]

I am very glad I bought a new freezer a few months ago!