Interesting Links for 23-02-2019

[andrewducker]

The Independent Group: a fundamental change or politics-as-usual?

(tags:UK politics reform )

People fake cancer too

(tags:fraud society )

Edinburgh streets could go car-free in major city centre shakeup

(tags:Edinburgh transport )

The Independent Group will back Theresa May in any vote of confidence

(tags:UK politics OhForFucksSake )

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Comments

[calimac]

Oh, so TIG [as I've already seen them referred to] have "decided not to do anything that would facilitate a general election," have they?

Well, of course they wouldn't, because when a general election comes they'll all lose their pants. Er, their seats.

[cmcmck]

I suppose you can take the view that if they don't it hands the keys of No 10 to Comrade Jeremy which would rather defeat the object of their pulling out in the first place?

Interesting times.........

[mountainkiss]

I think they've said fairly explicitly that their basic purpose in life is keeping Corbyn out of power?

[skington]

To be fair, any nascent political party formed in such a way would be against an early general election, because of the way the party-political system is biased against newcomers in the rUK. A grouping whose only positions so far are against Brexit, and whose ultimate ideas will be determined by how many additional MPs join it in the days and weeks to come, has even less interest in going to the polls early.

The Independent Group MPs may also be chancers and hacks, but any splinter group of MPs would behave in the same way IMO.

[calimac]

I'm not accusing them of being hacks: it takes a certain amount of political courage to drop your party. I'm just amused by the irony that their political interests are forcing them to take a position opposed to the political principle that led them to leave. And yes, it's the party system that creates this irony.

[dewline]

Corbyn and Rees-Mogg.

[danieldwilliam]

I'd like to see a map of the Edinburgh streets proposed to be closed on Sundays.

I'm not sure how well south Edinburgh is going to cope with having Lothian Road closed.

[andrewducker]

They do seem to be strongly discouraging people from driving from one part of Edinburgh to another.

[danieldwilliam]

Or even going on the bus.

There are about a half a dozen to a dozen bus routes that go along Lothian Road (2, 22, 30 , 10, 11, 15, 16, 24, 47 spring to mind).

I mean I'm in favour of the idea and in favour of trying it out to see how it works and all but Edinburgh has some logistical difficulties inherent in the design.

[danieldwilliam]

I thought their basic purpose in life was to reverse the Brexit policy of the government.

[mountainkiss]

They won’t do that by voting for the PM in a vote of no confidence. So I’m inclined to suspect it can’t be.

Also worth noting this group is not homogenous.

[danieldwilliam]

I think I disagree that that is a fact (that VONCing May leads to a general election) rather than a probability, but then I understand the provisions of the Fixed Term Parliament Act better than most MP's do, so I agree that that might be their perception.

(They in turn probably know better than I who is waiting in the wings to succeed May if she is VONCed.

It might also turn on whether they think they can delay Brexit by a substantial period of time without having to go through the messy and risky business of VONCing May. If they think they can do that then they can avoid the risky business of a general election for the time being.

[mountainkiss]

Sorry, not clear. I agree with you about FTPA. I just think that if their purpose is genuinely to oppose Brexit then May is among their worst enemies, if not the worst. So voting for her in any context is unlikely to advance their cause.

[danieldwilliam]

May is certainly amongst their worst enemies re Brexit. She might be an enemy that they think they can get around.

I'm genuinly not sure about, inter alia, the following

1) May could be forced to accept an extension to Article 50 without an apocalyptic (to her, not the UK) event actually happening. Will she recognise that the game is up or will she go to the mattresses in a lost cause?

2) May would stay on as PM if Brexit were delayed?

3) the likely contenders for PM if May is forced out or steps down and are more or less bad on Brexit.

4) the TIG are trying to thwart Brexit all in one go, or delay it whilst they gain influence or have another referendum (in the hope that they win) and on what timescales?

5) Who else might do what to force May's hand (if Grieve or Rudd arrive at her door with 50 Tory MP's and say "extend Article 50 or we'll quite and VONC 7 shades out of you" and she decides not to call their bluff (secure in her own untouchability as Tory Leader for 9 months) then Umunna doesn't have to do anything to her.)

6) TIG would trade a certainty of Norway to avoid the risk of No Deal, or if they would prioritise a small chance of Remain over any form of softer Brexit.

7) Having May as PM during an election over 29th March but no Parliament is better or worse? Would May guts out a VONC and try to win a General Election?

So, TL/DR I'm loathe to speculate or to draw much of a conclusion about their intentions from the behaviour at the moment as the actual terrain they are looking at is obscure to them and much more so for us.

[mountainkiss]

All very fair comments.

[danieldwilliam]

I wish I were surer but I've reached the point where "I'm fucked if I know guv'nor" is about the best forecast I've got.

Which in the words of Whitney Housten is all right but not okay.