Brexit: where are we now?

[andrewducker]

We've now had two party conferences. And thus a somewhat better idea where Labour stands. Plus more announcements from the government about how incompetent they are. (I don't think they intend them to be about today, but that's how they're landing).

So, to get it out of my head, here's where we are...

Withdrawal agreement:
Nowhere near agreeing anything on Northern Ireland. Without this we crash out in March. Doom.
(I'm now coming to the conclusion that Chequers was keeping us in the common market for goods as a solution to the Northern Ireland border. I can't think of any other explanation for thinking it might be a good idea)

Trading agreement (dependent on withdrawal agreement):
Labour will only vote for membership of a Customs Union.
The ERG faction of the Conservatives will only vote for something like an FTA.
SNP will vote against Chequers.
Lib Dems will vote against Chequers.
Chequers therefore cannot pass, because Labour+ ERG+ SNP+ Lib Dems is a majority.
And in any case the EU have said it's impossible, repeatedly.

Theresa May says she'd take No Deal over an FTA. So that's not getting through without replacing her, which doesn't look doable to be honest. There are numbers to call a vote, but not enough backing for anyone else to replace her.

So either we get the snap election there's been rumours of, we get a referendum, or we fall out with no deal.

Have I missed anything?

(I think this keeps going round in my head because I'm trying to think of a solution. That's what my brain when it sees a problem. Keep turning it over in the background to see if it can see any viable options. Sadly there are no clear escapes from this trap.)

Comments

[mountainkiss]

Not sure whether I've understood all the pieces correctly - am still processing - but if Labour will support a customs union and rule book alignment, she certainly has a majority with that and her own party for that deal. I think there's a negotiating position in this. It crosses one of her red lines but she might prefer that to going out without a deal. It's hard to tell which way she'll jump at the moment. Really not sure.

[andrewducker]

Yes, she could go for a Customs Union. But will she cross multiple of her own red lines to do so?

She's certainly saying not. Let's see if the lady's not for turning, even in the face of Armageddon.

[mountainkiss]

Well, exactly.

[cmcmck]

I think you sum it up pretty accurately and it doesn't feel anything like comfortable, does it? :o(

[andrewducker]

Really doesn't.

[randomdreams]

What would an election solve, at this point? What can a new PM do now?

[andrewducker]

Join the EEA, reverse article 50, I think are the two options that aren't horrific.

[hilarita]

I mean the PM could in theory try to revoke the Article 50 declaration, but she's not going to, absent a GE.