The British Government still understands nothing

[andrewducker]

I am really, really looking forward to writing about things that aren't Brexit, but as it's a disaster I can't stop thinking about, and possibly the defining moment of the UK in my lifetime, I'm afraid you're stuck with it for the moment. Rest assured that my life does include other things*.

So*, the new Brexit minister has said that Britain will refuse to pay the money it owes if it doesn't get the trade deal it wants. And Theresa May is sending MPs all over Europe to try and bypass the central negotiation that they've completely fucked up.

This takes us back to 2016, when we first had to deal with this kind of nonsense. And even then the Chancellor off the Exchequer said:

“That is not a credible scenario. That is not the kind of country we are. Frankly it would not make us a credible partner for future international agreements.”

And they're right. If you step into negotiations at the last minute, threaten to not pay your debts, and try to bypass the systems which the negotiation is based around - why on earth would anyone treat you as a trustworthy trading partner? I wouldn't go into a contract with a person who had previously refused to pay their share of a previous contract, and nor will any country which can avoid it.

Which leaves us with the UK refusing to live up to its previous obligations - including the Good Friday agreement. We've** refused the EU's suggestion for how we fulfil our part in this contract. And not come up with a credible alternative. Which leaves, as far as I can see, either keeping us completely in the EFTA, or betraying that obligation too***.

We have a branching path ahead of us. The government is going to face, in the not-too-distant future a choice between No Deal and EFTA. And then parliament will have to vote on whether to support that choice. Or possibly to kick it to the public in the form of another referendum.

Unless anyone see any deal which the government can get through which would uphold the Good Friday agreement _and_ get agreed with the EU in less than three months? We don't have five years for a Japan-style trade deal. We have three months to agree a backstop. And if we can't do that, something is going to have to break. I just hope it's the Conservative Government.

*Mostly the cutest 11-week old in the world, and Dark Souls: Remastered.
**And how I wish I wasn't tarnished as part of this "we".
***Which means No Deal (because the EU has made it very clear that not violating the Good Friday agreement has to be part of a withdrawal settlement, and Ireland gets a veto).

Comments

[cmcmck]

While I understand your horror at what is unfolding as we speak, excuse me if I concentrate on teh cute! It's way saner! :o)

[andrewducker]

Sophia has more sense than the entire cabinet.

(She has almost none, theirs is negative)

[anef]

I'm guessing that she lacks experience, rather than sense, but it may be too early to tell.

[redbird]

Sitting here on the other side of the Atlantic, I understand: most of what isn't political (and > 90% of that depressing or stressful) feels trivial.

On the other hand, this is my online journal, and I didn't start it in order to be profound, but to talk to my friends, and have records for myself. I would like not to mind that my journal entries are comparatively trivial and/or personal: what's at the farmers market and when is my mother coming to visit and what have I read lately, not to feel as though all that is fiddling while Rome burns.

[dewline]

Those expeditions strike me as a mirror-universe version of the expeditions that Justin Trudeau's cabinet have undertaken to the USA in order to keep resistance to DT-45's anti-NAFTA doctrine alive and thriving in those same states where (a) the Vulgarian's personal political base is strongest and yet (b) Canada is the most profitable business partner-nation of those same states. There are maps you can cross-reference to confirm this.

[danieldwilliam]

The Conservative Government will stitch up Northern Ireland and the DUP if it means they don't have to have their civil war in public.

[andrewducker]

How many seconds after they do that will we have a vote of no confidence?

[danieldwilliam]

I'm not sure that the DUP will trigger a vote of no confidence.

I'm far from certain that the Labour Party Brexiteers would bring down the Conservative government over Brexit.

[mountainkiss]

Do you think that cross-party moderates would bring down the government over a no-deal Brexit?

[danieldwilliam]

I don't think cross-party moderates exist in the Conservative Party, specifically not the cross-party bit.

My assumption whenever I think about this is that the Tories will always put the Party before any other consideration except their immediate personal amibition.

[mountainkiss]

Then I don’t understand why commentators keep arguing “there is not a majority for no deal in parliament”.

[danieldwilliam]

Because there isn't.

There also isn't a majority for bringing down the current government (or replacing the current government with an other configuration of the Conservative Party in government.)

Or a majority for having a second referendum.

Or a majority for joining EFTA.

There's a lot of uncertainty and waiting to see. There are lots of nearly majorities.

Which is why this situation is so dangerous. It could rapidly go in any direction without anyone really indending it to do so.

[birguslatro]

"my life does include other things"

I seem to have missed the announcement, if there was one, but congratulations! Sophia looks lovely.

[andrewducker]

https://andrewducker.dreamwidth.org/3631411.html

(And thanks!)

[birguslatro]

And thank you! I'd looked back through your Instagram photos, but didn't see those ones. I get to see a couple of kids I've never met growing up on FB, which is nice. It's usually the best of news.

[melchar]

What is it with politics the last 2 years? You have Brexit - 'we' have Trump. It's like lemmings grabbed the wheel of the bus and are accelerating towards a cliff.