Re: Coal

Date: 2017-11-06 10:59 am (UTC)
danieldwilliam: (Default)
Yeah, I don't think anyone is going to be in much of a rush to close any existing coal plants over the next ten years.

I don't see many new ones opening. I think the best the US coal mining industry can expect is roughly speaking a steady state coupled with persisent pressure on labour efficiency coupled with opportunities to automate processes using robots.

My personal expectation is that in about ten years time the combination of solar PV, CCGT and fracking and battery storage is going to make life economically difficult for existing coal generators leading to a steady decline in US demand for coal.

But the best case for US coal jobs is that there will probably be fewer of them in 2027 than there are 2017.

And there are real risk of being on the wrong side of a very rapid shift in the economics of electricity generation.

If one is 50 and already working in coal getting extra training in coal extraction might make sense. If you are 21 and not already a coal miner - well I would advice any son of mine to train up in something else.
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