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andrewduckerThe results for the Scottish Council Elections are nearly in and I am delighted to see that there are no councils so far under the control of one party. Last time we had a few (mostly Labour), but this time around it's going to have to be coalitions all the way.
In fact, looking at the 2012 results, I'm reminded that we had pretty much every coalition possible, from Con-SNP to Lab-Con to Lab-SNP, with a sprinkling of minority administrations.
Labour's fall in Edinburgh means that a continuation of the SNP-Lab coalition isn't going to happen, so instead it's either going to have to be SNP-Con, or SNP-Lab + either Lib-Dem or Green (or SNP-Lab as a minority). I suspect that's going to take a few days-to-weeks to iron out.
In any case, I am very happy that we use STV as the voting system for the councils up here. A much better result than we'd have had under the FPTP system used in England/Wales.
(Also happy that the Lib-Dems are up 3 seats! My commiserations to Patrick for not getting in as one of my councillors for my ward.)
In fact, looking at the 2012 results, I'm reminded that we had pretty much every coalition possible, from Con-SNP to Lab-Con to Lab-SNP, with a sprinkling of minority administrations.
Labour's fall in Edinburgh means that a continuation of the SNP-Lab coalition isn't going to happen, so instead it's either going to have to be SNP-Con, or SNP-Lab + either Lib-Dem or Green (or SNP-Lab as a minority). I suspect that's going to take a few days-to-weeks to iron out.
In any case, I am very happy that we use STV as the voting system for the councils up here. A much better result than we'd have had under the FPTP system used in England/Wales.
(Also happy that the Lib-Dems are up 3 seats! My commiserations to Patrick for not getting in as one of my councillors for my ward.)
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Date: 2017-05-08 10:56 am (UTC)I'd also be happier if local government had more powers, including finance powers and some constitutional protection.
I'm waiting on some data tables of first preferences but it looks like there has been a large transfer of votes from Labour to the Tories and pretty much everyone else has stood still. Except the Greens who have doubled their representation from a rounding error to some actual useful presence in some cities.
Larger Wards
Date: 2017-05-08 12:11 pm (UTC)I'm a bit nervous about larger wards. The advantage of STV over AMS is that you can make a considered choice on an individual level that you wish to support candidate X over candidate Y, rather than just voting for a party. But if you're talking about 7-person wards then I'd imagine you'd have a couple of parties with three candidates, multiple others with two, and several with one (because you'd only need 15% of the vote to get elected). At which point you've got upwards of fifteen candidates to research and rank, which is going to stretch most people.
Agreed about more decentralisation, and it does look very-much like the authoritarian/unionist vote has shifted from Labour to the Conservatives. We'll have to see whether it sticks there or they feel too dirty to continue in five years.
Of course, this does make Independence into even more of an SNP/Conservative battle, which could play well for a Yes vote...
Re: Larger Wards
Date: 2017-05-08 01:53 pm (UTC)At the current point I probably favour marginally more proportionality and marginally less choice of the person than we currently have but YMMV and rightly so. I think it's one of those things on which reasonable people can disagree. I'd rather go from 3-4 to 6-8 but I wouldn't want to go to 12-16 members per ward. That I think reaches the point for me where STV voting would become cumbersome.
I would be interested in seeing how things like personal factors played out in STV. How closely do voters stick to their prefered party's ranking suggestions (the only comment I've seen on this suggests pretty well). How many informed and active voters have to take against a particular person for them to finish bottom of their party's pool of candidates? If only 5% or 10% of voters are forming personal opinions on one of the candidates is that enough for them to reap the reward of their reputation or do you need 25% plus?
Re: Larger Wards
Date: 2017-05-08 01:59 pm (UTC)I'm also uncertain whether there are enough Labour-Tory switchers in the not-SNP voter pool for the Tories to overtake the SNP in large numbers of seats.
But fundamentally I think you are probably right. If the question of independence comes down to a ten year contest between social democracy through independence vs the Tories then that probably helps independence.
Re: Larger Wards
Date: 2017-05-08 05:19 pm (UTC)Re: Larger Wards
Date: 2017-05-08 05:38 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2017-05-09 11:34 am (UTC)(Bastards only publish them in pdf. Pdf!)
SNP pretty much unchanged on 32.3% of the first preferennce.
Big move from Labour to Tories. Labour down from 31.4% to 20.2%. Tories up from 13.3% to 25.3%. Combined Labour & Tory 1st preference share is 45.5% up from 44.7% by 0.8%
Greens up from 2.3% to 4.1% - relatively big increase in vote share for them. With the increase in turnout they've doubled their actual first preference vote to 77k from 36k.
Lib Dems up a fraction.
So at first glance it looks like Labour to Tory swapping with slight reduction in Independents and Other Parties.
I have some 2017 local authority break downs but can't yet find the 2012 equilvalent.