Date: 2012-01-29 01:51 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] lizw.livejournal.com
If part of the problem in replacing the head of RBS really is the need to understand both the retail and the investment side of the bank, then that is another argument in favour of the LD policy of splitting the two.

Date: 2012-01-29 01:59 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] bohemiancoast.livejournal.com
The answer to 'why are software development task estimations regularly off by a factor of 2-3' is, as you say, fantastic, but it implies that all software projects are managed by people who have never managed anything of any kind before, particularly not a project. You would think that, over time, project management expertise would be developed and companies who accurately quote for projects would win business.

That this isn't so implies rather that we have an industry where the rewards for rose-coloured spectacle wearing are too great and the penalties for failure to deliver are nothing like big enough.

Unless the hiker is seriously suggesting that, say, erecting Olympic buildings is a task easier to specify and implement than modest software projects.

Date: 2012-01-29 02:59 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] poisonduk.livejournal.com
I've been extolling the virtues of my carb free diet for almost a year(see my post today which was written before discovering your links). My blood pressure came into line with the cut out of carbs and the weight loss is far easier and more dramatuc(18 pounds in three weeks). I don't feel hungry as I'm not taking in the carbs which cause the hunger pangs when they wear off. I was always against what I considered were 'fad' diets until I discovered this one,and used to follow Weight Watchers stringently till I got bored and ate everything.

Date: 2012-01-29 04:33 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] channelpenguin.livejournal.com
love the infographic. but you knew I would :-)

Date: 2012-01-29 04:36 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] channelpenguin.livejournal.com
pretty much this.

And don't forget that in software, you often have to invent your own tools and use different materials from "the last time "because, say, bricks, are now obsolete and you can't use any of your current spanners on these new-fangled weird shaped bolts. And anyway we do it all with Veclro now - hadn't you heard? No one supports bolts!

Date: 2012-01-29 05:40 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] octopoid-horror.livejournal.com
I like that all the ire is being levelled at Stephen Hester for (in the public eye) not having done the job he was meant to, when there's an entire board led by Sir Philip Hampton whose jobs are somewhat nebulous and who may be even less fit for purpose. If he has in some way not done his job, they've certainly not done theirs either.

There was an article I sent to you a while ago about how promoting internal people is a better option (and would arguably lead to less inflated salaries) then recruting a new CE at a bank every few years.

Date: 2012-01-29 05:52 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] pete stevens (from livejournal.com)
I don't like the hiking metaphor. An experienced runner/walker could make a fairly accurate prediction, e.g. this morning I set out for a 22 mile run. Prediction was 'a little over 3 hours', actual time '3:09'. Last week I set out for a roughly 15-16m run, prediction 'about 2 hours', actual time for 15.7miles '2:05'. On a better specified course (paris marathon), prediction '3:15:00', actual time '3:16:20', I can routinely hit times within 5% on unknown courses armed only with a map and ten minutes to look at it. The error in the hiking example is the managers are incompetent, the question is why can't experienced software people give even vaguely accurate estimates.

That said when it comes to burning fat and weightloss, training for a marathon works pretty effectively. Stepping up the mileage to 60+miles per week I have to eat constantly to fail to maintain my weight. Last year I ran the Paris marathon and I lost about half a stone despite trying very hard to eat as much food as I could including routinely stopping for chips on the way to a restaurant for dinner and stopping for chips again on the way back.

Date: 2012-01-29 06:09 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] pete stevens (from livejournal.com)
I did the Ashton court 5km parkrun. I'd normally predict 19:20-20:00 for a 5km race, it turned out to have a huge hill in the middle (average gradient of 4%, varying between flattish & 12%) and I was hung over, actual time - 21:10. The Hanley park run had a moderate hill, mud and a dangerously slippery moss covered path on the downhill - time there 19:44.

Seabank marathon, was persuaded to run it the night before, didn't realise it was cross country with styles and 4ft grass to wade through. Said at the start to said friend 'probably 3:40-3:45ish', actually ran 3:50. He's not an experienced distance runner, replied 'probably a bit over 4h', actual time 6:12.

But knowing a lot of people who run regularly it's pretty common that experienced people can predict their finishing time to within a minute, watching the London marathon last year stood at the 13/22 mile point I could accurately predict when the people I was supporting would come round the bend to sub minute accuracy.

That said, if your predictive strategy was the enormously naive 'Pete can run 1 mile in 5:30, therefore he can run a marathon in 2:24' as listed in the article you'd do pretty badly although still much better than most software projects.

Date: 2012-01-29 07:54 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] cairmen.livejournal.com
I can't help feeling that the massive flap over Hester receiving a £600k bonus is a major "paying attention to the wrong thing" fail.

RBS made £1.2 billion in the first three quarters of last year. If Hester's leadership made a 1% difference to that, the investment in his salary paid out £12 million in return. Assuming that his job is actually reasonably important to making sure RBS does as well as possible, arguing about small percentages of that seems rather petty.

It's rather the equivalent of a small company demotivating its top programmer by refusing to buy him/her a new laptop.
Edited Date: 2012-01-29 07:55 pm (UTC)

Date: 2012-01-29 10:24 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] cairmen.livejournal.com
I get the impression this is an ideological fight for many people, and fair enough - I just don't see the practical upside of it. Maybe I'm misunderstanding and the *intention* is to take a hit practically in order to send a message ideologically?

Upsides: Possibly save £1mil.

Downsides: Tie up Hester, House of Commons, RBS board, and a bunch of lawyers for a month or so. (All of which costs money, including wasting some of the large salary we're paying Hester.) Demotivate and irritate the guy we're relying on to boost £billion profit company (who presumably has a quantifable impact on profits/losses - if the guy does nothing useful we shouldn't be paying him, y'know, anything at all). Potentially cause said guy to leave with no obvious replacement, dropping RBS share price in the toilet (downside in the billions).

Just doesn't seem an approach that's going to end up with the UK investment in RBS being worth more rather than less.
Edited Date: 2012-01-29 10:25 pm (UTC)

Date: 2012-01-29 10:47 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] cairmen.livejournal.com
Completely agreed on both points.

Date: 2012-01-30 02:41 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] naath.livejournal.com
Yes, and an experienced runner/walker can *read the map* supplied. So the hiking metaphor is bullshit, because only a complete novice would make those bullshit assumptions from that map.

Whereas with software projects you don't get a map at all; that's a totally different proposition.

Date: 2012-01-31 01:24 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] danieldwilliam.livejournal.com
Quite a few of the aircraft designs have Rolls Royce engines - which is nice.

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