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instagram cross-post
May. 7th, 2021 03:07 am
Gideon informs me that all the cool kids are riding their high chairs
side-saddle.
Original is here on
instagram.
May. 7th, 2021
Interesting Links for 07-05-2021
May. 7th, 2021 12:00 pm- Why What3Words is not suitable for safety critical applications
- (tags:data safety location )
- Liz Cheney's important statement about constitutionalism and politics
- (tags:politics constitution USA republicans )
- Biggest ISPs paid for 8.5 million fake FCC comments opposing net neutrality
- (tags:USA fraud internet )
- Judge throws out LGB Alliance founder's fight to ban trans women from women's single-sex spaces
- (tags:transgender LGBT law UK GoodNews )
- The Hartlepool result looks really terrible for Labour (Conservatives mostly hoovered up Reform UK votes)
- (tags:labour elections UK Doom )
- The amazing true story of the RMS Carpathia, and how they went to the rescue of the Titanic
- (tags:Titanic history )
- Labour's strategy on Brexit is to keep schtum in the hope voters will move on. They are not.
- (tags:UK Europe labour politics Doom )
This doesn't look good:
And looking at it in absolute terms makes it clear how badly things have gone for Labour:
So what's happened here is that a bunch of ReformUK voters (the old name for which was the "Brexit Party") switched to voting Conservative, while Labour voters stayed at home because they didn't see the point.
Easy, you'd think. Labour just need to get more Brexit-oriented and bring home those lovely Brexit voters. It's what the people want! But wait!
Turns out that actually they don't! One party can't just dither in the middle of things and hope that the issues that split them go away!
Now, if Labour had held up their side of the bargain in 1997, and we had PR now, this wouldn't be such a problem. But under FPTP, multiple parties on one side of an issue versus a single party on the other side means that the unified side wins every time! And as Labour's rules prevent pacts England is going to be fucked for quite some time.
Edit. Here are the Labour votes over the last few elections:
2010 LAB Hold, 16,267 (Milliband)
2015 LAB hold, 14,076 (Milliband)
2017 LAB hold, 21,969 (Corbyn)
2019 LAB hold, 15,464 (Corbyn)
2021 LAB loss - 8589 (Stamner)
So Corbyn took Labour to a high point in 2017 in Hartlepool, then even after the prolonged media lashing in 2019, he still did better there than milliband had done.
Hartlepool, parliamentary by-election result:
— Britain Elects (@BritainElects) May 7, 2021
Con: 51.9% (+23.0)
Lab: 28.7% (-9.0)
Ind: 9.7% (+7.5)
RefUK: 1.2% (-24.6)
Grn: 1.2% (+1.2)
LDem: 1.2% (-3.0)
Oth: 6.1% (+4.9)
Con GAIN from Lab.
And looking at it in absolute terms makes it clear how badly things have gone for Labour:
In 2017, the Tories got 14,319 votes in Hartleypool. In 2021, they got 15,529.
— Adam Smith (@adamndsmith) May 7, 2021
In 2017, Labour got 21,969 votes. In 2021, they got 8589.
That’s not a swing to the Conservatives; that’s people not caring enough to show up.
So what's happened here is that a bunch of ReformUK voters (the old name for which was the "Brexit Party") switched to voting Conservative, while Labour voters stayed at home because they didn't see the point.
Easy, you'd think. Labour just need to get more Brexit-oriented and bring home those lovely Brexit voters. It's what the people want! But wait!
Hendon (Sunderland) council result:
— Britain Elects (@BritainElects) May 6, 2021
LDem: 42.2% (+34.8)
Lab: 34.8% (-30.2)
Con: 15.5% (-4.8)
Grn: 4.5% (-2.9)
UKIP: 3.1% (+3.1)
LDem GAIN from Lab
More: https://t.co/laSaIRWUOf
Turns out that actually they don't! One party can't just dither in the middle of things and hope that the issues that split them go away!
Now, if Labour had held up their side of the bargain in 1997, and we had PR now, this wouldn't be such a problem. But under FPTP, multiple parties on one side of an issue versus a single party on the other side means that the unified side wins every time! And as Labour's rules prevent pacts England is going to be fucked for quite some time.
Edit. Here are the Labour votes over the last few elections:
2010 LAB Hold, 16,267 (Milliband)
2015 LAB hold, 14,076 (Milliband)
2017 LAB hold, 21,969 (Corbyn)
2019 LAB hold, 15,464 (Corbyn)
2021 LAB loss - 8589 (Stamner)
So Corbyn took Labour to a high point in 2017 in Hartlepool, then even after the prolonged media lashing in 2019, he still did better there than milliband had done.