More on politics

[andrewducker]

In Edinburgh East a vote is apparently worth 0.195 votes. Because it's a safe seat - Labour being 16% ahead of the Liberals. Still, last time round there was a 16.9% swing, so it's _possible_ it's just unlikely.

Check out how safe your seat is (if you're in the UK, that is. If you're in the USA then you have to sit this one out. You had all of your excitement a year ago...)

Thanks to the_magician for the link.

Comments

[randomchris.livejournal.com]

0.037 here. Mind you my Labour MP does seem to be a decent bloke (Eric Joyce, voted against digital economy bill, responded to the letter I sent him etc.)

[ninebelow.livejournal.com]

Man, they still have the wrong information for my postcode. I wrote to TheyWorkForyou about this last elections.

Putting it in manually gives 0.039 Ultra safe. The average UK voter has 6.67x more voting power than me. And there are over 100 constinuencies that are safer!

[andrewducker]

And they wonder why people don't vote.

[chuma.livejournal.com]

"In Edinburgh South, one person does not really have one vote, they have the equivalent of 1.013 votes."

Good job our flat votes then really ain't it? :) Lib Dems might take this one this time.

[momentsmusicaux.livejournal.com]

Drat. I won't be living there in time :(

[andrewducker]

Oooh, tiny tiny distance between LD and Lab over by you. I shall keep my fingers crossed.

[momentsmusicaux.livejournal.com]

Is there anywhere a map showing the boundaries of Edinburgh constituencies? I searched but ended up having to piece a mental one together from the list of districts given on Wikipedia.

[bracknellexile.livejournal.com]

Election Maps UK

[momentsmusicaux.livejournal.com]

Thanks!

That's perfect! (well, if it weren't so much slowed than google maps...!)

[andrewducker]

The map here can be zoomed in on and panned about.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/vote2005/flash_map/html/map05.stm

[nmg.livejournal.com]

Hmmm. Romsey and Southampton North (due to boundary changes). 16th out of 650, 1 vote is worth 0.981 votes.

It's going to be an interesting election here.

[andrewducker]

Ooh - I just took a look at the results from last time. Looks like you've got a Lab/Lib/Con fight on your hands. I just hope the Liberals don't get squashed in the middle.

[nmg.livejournal.com]

Not quite that straight forward. We were in Southampton Itchen, which is John Denham's seat (Lab), and relatively safe (9000+ majority at the last election on 48%, with the remainder split fairly evenly between Lib and Con).

However, the boundaries have changed, and we're now in Romsey and Southampton North, which is Sandra Gidley's seat. She had a majority of 125 votes at the last election, with the Tories in second place. Labour don't have a chance here.

[andrewducker]

Aaah, I misunderstood, thinking that two areas had been combined. That makes more sense!

[pisica.livejournal.com]

I suspect my constituency's statistics are fairly useless, given that the site (which is very well done; I'm not snarking it) doesn't acknowledge the by-election which saw a major swing from Labour to Lib Dem.

In any case, I shall vote for the Lib Dem incumbent as he's ace.

[andrewducker]

This is a good guide to the previous results:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/vote2005/flash_map/html/map05.stm

[skington.livejournal.com]

My local Labour MP is quite dreadful - votes in lock-step with the Party on all of the worst aspects of Labour policy (e.g. ID cards, terrorism security theatre, the Digital Economy Bill). Happily this is a Liberal target seat, if not an easy one.

[henriksdal.livejournal.com]

Ah, good old Labour heartland (back hone): In Wansbeck, one person has the equivalent of 0.049 votes. HAppily, I remembered to register here in D&G - where my vote is 0.68 of a vote. yay!

[alienspacebat.livejournal.com]

I'm inclined to think at the moment that none of the major parties represent me - I just have to look at all the vote match online quizzes and I come out around 40-50% match to most parties. I'm sure if they put error bars on the results given the limited question set then my result spread would be within the experimental error

So looking to Edinburgh East, I wondered if any of the candidates may be better and unfortunately it's a safe seat in part because I dont think there is good competition

- A young Lib Dem who has written as much about her Duke of Ed experiences and religious beliefs as her politics
- A Conservative who seems barely out of school and has very little info online. Probably let stand here as a test as the Tories have so little share of the vote
- An SNP candidate who had to leave his previous constituency after very shady talks with the UKAEA over Dounreay. He at least promises to represent the local area which our MSP does, but I dont think either are a good bet at party level and the party kept very little pre election promises for the Scottish Parliament.

And of course the labour candidate is no longer Gavin Strang but an ex labour councillor and part of the labour cabal that were in the council when things seemed rather corrupt.

I'd love to know what the independent candidates are and if they have any chance of getting in

[matgb]

it's a safe seat in part because I dont think there is good competition
The opposite is normally true.

I know in the LDs (member since '06) there's a lot of competition to become a candidate in the target or possible seats, but there's no money at all to even run a campaign in the safest of seats held by a different party.

What will happen is they'll try and target a council ward or two, then spread out over time.

Joys of being entirely run and funded by volunteers y'see.

My honest approach in this sort of area is to encourage people to get actively involved; pick a party, or run yourself, it's actually the safest seats that the Independents do best in, the parties can't afford to fight there.