A few thoughts on what could happen next for Boris Johnson

[andrewducker]

He won the VONC. This is what I wanted, and what I predicted a few days ago when I said, over on Twitter and Facebook: Funniest outcome: enough letters go in to have a No Confidence vote against Johnson, he then wins it, and then the Conservatives catastrophically lose the two by-elections.

So, next steps are to lose the two by-elections 1 and 2 on the 23rd of June (or, at the least, suffer massive swings).

But before that we have a more interesting one - an upcoming vote on breaking international law on the Northern Ireland Protocol. 148 Conservative MPs voted against him in the no-confidence vote. It needs only 40 to do so on this bill (which is remarkably contentious) and he can't pass it.

At which point, last time around, he called a general election. Doing so again, and winning it, would absolutely cement him back into power.

The big question is - would he win it? It doesn't look like it, but Johnson might take the risk...

(My preferred outcome would be a Labour government dependent on the Lib Dems and SNP to pass things, with both of them insisting on electoral reform as essential.)

Comments

[i_kender]

I completely agree with you. But then, I also thought he would be long by now (I was predicting by the end of Feb) and I am flabbergasted he's managed to cling on to power for this long. But he is a slippery pig, and it just highlights the woeful political and voting system we have currently.

Can't we just riot en-masse and burn things? like the French Revolution? Let them eat cake until they burst etc. ?

[cmcmck]

I had also been pondering on whether Bojo would be stupid enough to call a snap election.

[mtbc]

I think you stand a fair chance of things happening as you're hoping, we're in for an interesting year.

[anef]

If we had a GE now, we couldn't end up worse off than we are now - could we? I mean the Tories couldn't get more votes.

[calimac]

Assorted thoughts here:

1) Remember when the Conservatives were losing all those by-elections after scraping out a victory in 1992? Good times. (Some time during the depths of the Blair era, I suggested to a Conservative friend that the worst thing that ever happened to the party, from the point of view of supporting it, was that it won the 1992 election, and she didn't disagree.)

2) But if BJ called an election now, I wonder if there'd be enough enthusiasm for other parties for them to do any better. Except the SNP. The SNP should do fine.

2a). It'd be a little like 2005, with different labels. Voters no longer wanted the government but they didn't want the opposition either. Labour didn't win that one, they just lost least badly. Same could happen for the Conservatives here: actually I wonder if it didn't already happen in '17 and '19.

3) "Labour ... dependent on the Lib Dems and SNP ... with both of them insisting on electoral reform." But considering how thoroughly and absolutely the Lib Dems muffed that issue in the coalition, I wonder if they've learned any better how to handle this.

[xenophanean]

I think that the electorate would boot him out if a GE was called now. Not sure about 6 months time. He's as good a self-publicist as he is awful a politician.

[penta]

Thought from the US via a temperamental keyboard:

Does any party besides the Tories have the money to fight a snap GE?

[danieldwilliam]

My thoughts in no particular order or structure


I think the Tories will lose the two by-elections. At this point it will properly land with a few more Tory MP's that they are in very real danger of not just losing the next General Election but of putting themselves out of power for decades.

I think it is unlikely that the Labour Party can win a majority assuming the SNP vote holds up. However, when the Labour Party has won majorities of UK seats I believe they have tended to win majorities of English seats - so it is not impossible and a full on rainbow coalition might not be needed.

The Labour Party have some options with House of Commons No Confidence votes. If Johnson loses the vote on the NI Protocol the Opposition parties could bring a motion of No Confidence in the Prime Minister - which if he loses would (certainly constitutionally ought) to him being removed as Prime Minister before he asks for a dissolution. By convention Starmer as leader of the largest opposition party would probably be appointed Prime Minister and would remain so until he in turn lost a No Confidence vote.

I don't see the Tories winning a snap General Election. People seem genuinely very angry at Boris Johnson. At the best of times they are pretty sceptical about General Elections mostly intended to shore up the power of governing party by gaming the rules. I expect they will be enraged by a snap General Election intended to shore up the personal power of Johnson. More, I think that voters are beginning to firmly link Johnson and Tory MP's, the one being enabled by the other who are more fearful of losing their own jobs than in doing the right thing. Once that association is made, difficult to shift and it runs the risk of becoming generic rather than specific - that voters hold the Tory Party in contempt because of how they have shown themselves to be and behave rather than specifically because the Tory MP's are supporting Johnson. It may damage them for a long time if left to fester for much longer. (I pray in aid the Major Government of 1992 -97).

If the Liberal Democrats do not insist on electoral reform and the Scottish National Party do not insist on the absolute right to call independence referendums whenever they want before agreeing to put Starmer in office then they are fools of the worst kind.