Brexit intensifies

[andrewducker]

So, today the only government ever to be found in contempt of parliament lost a vote by the largest margin ever suffered by a British government, losing by 230 votes (previous "winner" was Ramsay Macdonald's minority Labour government, losing by 166 votes).

Immediately afterwards, Corbyn lodged a vote of no confidence in the government. The DUP have said they will back the Conservatives, which almost certainly means that the vote will fail*.

The EU wants us to make our mind up, and has now repeatedly said that the withdrawal deal is not open for renegotiation. Which greatly reduces the options we have remaining. So once we the no confidence fails I can't see what else Labour can do but move towards a second referendum.

Which is, according to all recent polls, what the people want. (46% to 28% last I checked).

*It's _possible_ that a few Conservatives will rebel. But incredibly unlikely.

Comments

[mountainkiss]

I suspect the EU would renegotiate for a customs union and single market option, though I could be wrong. I don’t discount a cross-party coalition for that. I also don’t discount no deal.

[mountainkiss]

Corbyn withdrawing his amendment was a bad sign, though I’m slightly comforted that Blackford did too.

[alithea]

Another referendum would require an extension of Article 50 though surely? And the EU would need to agree that.

[rhythmaning]

I'm disappointed that WHISKY! doesn't seem to be one of your options.

[chickenfeet]

It's rather a shame that the EU can't just decide that the UK is incapable of governing itself and put in trustees.

[dewline]

Speaking as a meddling outsider, better a "No Brexit" deal than a "no-deal" Brexit.

[calimac]

Fascinating. I actually went to Hansard and read the final debate.

A point that some of the speakers came close to making is that the deal they were voting on is not the Brexit that the Leavers voted for, not even close. Neither is "no deal." So, since the idealized Brexit that won the referendum is not on offer, the only proper course is to back up and start over.

[cmcmck]

The term 'Committee of Public Safety' begins to circulate my historian's mind alarmingly!

[danieldwilliam]

I think May will survive the VONC. My estimations are

90% - May survives

5% - May loses but wins the VOC in two weeks time (some Tories and / or the DUP administer a punishment beating)

3% - May loses and is replaced by another Tory who wins the VOC

1% - May loses and Keir Starmer or Vince Cable form a government of national unity

1% - there is a General Election.

If there is a General Election then I think the likely outcomes are each a 1/4 chance

Small Tory Majority - Tory Party still split

Small Labour Majority - Labour Party still split

SNP/LD/PC increase seats - Pro-EU influence on minority government

Things stay the same.


(There is of course the chance that the Tory Party splits, de jure on rival manifestoes or de facto through UKIP or that UKIP win 5 seats and cost the Tories 50, or the Lib Dems win 40 seats or some other crazy thing happens but not likely.

So I'm making a Corbyn Labour Government 0.5% chance of happening. More likely outcomes in my view are a Keir Starmer or Boris Johnson government.

However, and it is a huge however, I saw nothing from May that indicated that she was prepared to change her policy. There is nothing from the EU that suggests they will change their policy on May's Deal. So in 95% chance we end up with May remaining as PM we are probably looking at another vote on the same deal in about 2 weeks followed, probably defeated and followed by a second VONC immediately afterwards.

A General Election IIRC takes 6 weeks. That six weeks can't start until the Fixed Term Parliament Act two week grace period has finished so the earliest we have an election is the 14th of March with the result not known until the 15th and perhaps not clear until the next week, week starting 18th of March. T-minus 11 days.

May can remain Prime Minister for those eight weeks if she chooses and can remain PM until the new Parliament meets. See Gordon Brown passim.