The most important graph for showing where we are now with the pandemic in Scotland.

[andrewducker]

Obviously, the three lines aren't on the same scale - but they are scaled so that their peaks match for the second (Christmas) peak. Which allows you to compare peaks.

The important things to note are
1) In the peak last April a much lower level of cases nearly overwhelmed the NHS by translating into a high level of hospitalisations.
2) The ratio was vastly improved at Christmas. This will be a combination of better testing and better treatment.
3) The ratio improves dramatically again in the current peak, because we've now got 3/4 of the country vaccinated in some form. Which knocks hospitalisations down, and deaths even further. Which is amazing all round.

It's also important to remember that the metric the government cares about is hospitalisation. Fundamentally "Is the NHS going to be overwhelmed". And now that we're vaccinated that's dramatically less likely to happen. And so it's very unlikely that restrictions will be reimposed.

The next test will be around spread from large gatherings (festivals, sporting events) and from schools going back (August 13th). Let's hope schools reopening doesn't send things sky high again!

Graph, as usual, from here.

Comments

[liv]

This is a good way to compare wave 2 with wave 3 but it's meaningless for wave 1: we basically weren't doing any testing except on people who were hospitalized. So it's not that last April a much lower level of cases nearly overwhelmed the NHS - it's that we have no idea how many cases there were last April because there was no community testing. I agree with your conclusion 3 and I agree that the likely implication is no further national-level restrictions, certainly not in England and probably not in Scotland either.

[anna_wing]

That's very positive, and hopefully the trend continues in that direction.