andrewducker: (Default)
andrewducker ([personal profile] andrewducker) wrote2021-08-01 12:00 pm
dewline: Text - "On the DEWLine" (Default)

[personal profile] dewline 2021-08-01 02:00 pm (UTC)(link)
2. They don't want anyone doing a Germany 1945 to them. That's the big motive. Also, Xi thinks he'll benefit if he keeps Russia, India and the US from sitting together that the same nuclear arms negotiations table.

3. So much for "don't be evil".

7. Amanda Knox has got a valid point, and therefore is being pointedly ignored.
armiphlage: (Daniel)

[personal profile] armiphlage 2021-08-01 04:49 pm (UTC)(link)
I don't understand why they are building missile silos, though - that's 1960s technology. Today, silos can only withstand first strikes from conventional weapons, and are useless if you want second-strike capability in a nuclear exchange. Silos are just a waste of material for first-strike launches, too. Plus, the construction is easily visible from orbit.

For second-strike capabilities, I see three methods superior to silos that would be better for China:

1) Traditional submarine-based ballistic missiles - currently very hard to detect once they exit coastal waters and can get into the deep ocean.

2) Mobile land-based ICBMs. Unlike silos (which take years to construct, are easily detectable from orbit, and are easy targets), you can keep moving missile launch platforms around the country. The US truck-based MX missile system from the 1980s would have had had heavily-guarded live and dummy missiles continually moving between hardened launch locations via rail and highways, at a cost of $50 billion. That's unnecessary. It'd be much cheaper to just package a missile and its launch infrastructure in a few anonymous shipping containers, and keep moving them between shipping depots across the country. After an attack, they could be assembled and launched from a nearby parking lot. You'd need a pre-placed survey marker in the parking lot to calibrate the inertial reference system, since you wouldn't want to rely on GPS, but those are everywhere already.

3) Pre-positioned weapons systems. As the old joke goes, it'd be easy to smuggle a nuclear weapon across borders - just hide it in a truckload of drugs. Then, rent an office or storage space near potential targets. This would allow faster response times than ICBM systems, and would avoid anti-missile defences. If a few weapons got caught by Customs, that'd just demonstrate the credibility of your ability to retaliate.
danieldwilliam: (Default)

[personal profile] danieldwilliam 2021-08-01 09:51 pm (UTC)(link)
I think if someone found a nuclear weapon being moved across their border they might treat it as an actual first strike.
armiphlage: Ukraine (Default)

[personal profile] armiphlage 2021-08-01 10:13 pm (UTC)(link)
Very good point.
danieldwilliam: (Default)

[personal profile] danieldwilliam 2021-08-02 11:19 am (UTC)(link)
You'd have three problems as the finder
1) Who actually attacked me?
2) Have they already got devices inside my borders or is this the first?
3) Will the international community, especially the nuclear armed members, agree that this discovery constitutes a first strike?

armiphlage: Ukraine (Default)

[personal profile] armiphlage 2021-08-02 02:35 pm (UTC)(link)
With respect to #2, some people played a prank by releasing four pigs in a school, numbered 1,3,4,and 5, skipping the one marked with a 2.

https://www.reddit.com/r/AskReddit/comments/11lq29/our_senior_prank_was_to_grease_up_four_pigs_and/

This would be an edge case of the "German Tank Problem" of serial number analysis.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_tank_problem
danieldwilliam: (Default)

[personal profile] danieldwilliam 2021-08-02 03:23 pm (UTC)(link)
That prank is genius.
snippy: Lego me holding book (Default)

[personal profile] snippy 2021-08-02 12:10 am (UTC)(link)
4 - that's absolutely standard, if you make any claim of emotional injury/damages in an employment suit they will definitely subpoena your medical records and try to prove that any symptoms you report were due to other things in your life, not due to your employer. As is encouraging people to use the company-paid services. Remember, HR exists to protect the company from employees.
armiphlage: (Daniel)

[personal profile] armiphlage 2021-08-02 02:45 pm (UTC)(link)
In Canada, an RCMP officer that was the victim of bullying and sexual harassment was required to be assessed a psychologist by her superiors. Except they had a fake psychologist show up at her workplace instead, who filed a fake report using the real psychologist's letterhead.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/police-officer-mental-health-report-by-fake-psychologist-sexual-harassment-1.6083291