I've been awful at not watching the American election

[andrewducker]

And with 6 states to go, and 5 of those being battleground states, it's all been quite stressful.

I had 5 minutes to myself, so of course I broke out a spreadsheet and worked out what percentages of the mail-in votes would need to go which way for the currently losing person to win it.

State	Percentage of remaining votes the underdog needs to take the lead
Arizona	Trump needs 57%
Georgia	Biden needs 55%
North Carolina	Biden needs 64%
Nevada	Trump needs 52%
Pennsylvania	Biden needs 59%

Which I find somewhat reassuring. The recent mail-in votes from Pennsylvania have been coming in at 90% Biden, because Philadelphia is traditionally very Democrat-oriented. North Carolina looks likely to go to Trump. Nevada probably Biden (most mail-in votes have been going to Democrats). Arizona, on the other hand, has a history of mail-in votes as standard, so Republicans there have been voting that way - and that looks like it might be quite close. As usual, let me know if I've got anything obviously wrong. And, of course, all of this is futile - results will dribble in today/tomorrow and nothing I can say or do will change anything!

Comments

[mtbc]

Your somewhat reassuring analysis is right in line with other credible sources I've been watching.

[drplokta]

Just to observe that it’s not a coincidence that five of the remaining six states are battleground states. Plenty of other states have counted a smaller proportion of their votes than the states in question — only about 2/3 in California — but for states that aren’t in any real doubt, that’s easily enough to call them for one party or another so they’re not treated as being still to finish their counts, even though they are.

[andrewducker]

Excellent point!

[calimac]

What most interests me is that if all 6 states go the way they're currently trending (i.e. Trump takes Pennsylvania as well as the others he's leading in), then Biden wins the Electoral College by exactly one vote, 270 to 268.

[ckd]

And that result would only be because Nebraska splits its electoral vote by Congressional district, with the two remaining going to the statewide winner. Assuming the current leads held but the NE-2 vote flipped (or had Nebraska been winner-take-all) it'd be 269-269 and thrown to the House.

[calimac]

On the other hand, Trump took ME-2 from the other state that splits its vote. If splitting didn't happen, we'd be back at 270-268 again.

[conuly]

Which is suboptimal, really.

[calimac]

Agreed. Intelligent American opinion has been in favor of eliminating the College for a long time. It's been obsolete and not working right since at least 1796.

[davidcook]

From what I can see on the Bloomberg site, Biden should get Arizona, and is ahead in Nevada, Georgia, and Pennsylvania - North Carolina is close, but still with Trump. If those results hold, Biden is in.

What I've been watching is the Senate counting, because my understanding is that without holding the Senate, Moscow Mitch (assuming he's still there) and friends will just refuse to pass any legislation from the Democrats (unless it is twisted to also meet Republican amendments and additions). ... ok, this is based on a very hazy understanding of the US system, but I'm pretty sure that's what has happened previously. The counts there are close, but I don't see the Democrats gaining 50 Senate seats.

(maybe there's hope in the mid-term Senate elections ? I don't know if the seats up for re-election then will be more or less likely to swing Dem ... )

[andrewducker]

Yeah, Biden has the presidency.

Senate will be tricky, but Georgia will be having run off elections, which gives some hope. If not, then yes, the midterms.