Where are we on Brexit?

[andrewducker]

It's been a while since we had one of these, and I wanted to get my thoughts in order.

The local elections last week _should_ have sent a solid message. But, of course, Corbyn and May are saying that the message it sent was "More Brexit Please". However, they've still not got any chance of getting a deal over the line.

Labour won't accept a Brexit deal with the Conservatives without a customs deal of some kind*. And Theresa May agreeing to that would cause at least 100 of her MPs to vote against it.

Meanwhile, two thirds of Labour MPs are saying they won't vote for any Brexit deal which doesn't have a second referendum attached to it.

Plus, of course, the EU have said that all they will edit at this point is the political declaration, the actual withdrawal agreement is sealed.

And if the government decides "The hell with this" and call a general election we end up in a situation like this:
Conservatives: 279
Labour: 268
Liberal Democrats: 29
SNP: 51 (I think, looking at the other numbers)

Which means you'd need Lab+Lib+SNP for a solid majority**. Coalition of Chaos indeed!

*As far as anyone can tell the Labour leadership are still thinking that they can have a customs deal that gives them lots of access to things, but without having to give anything up. As they aren't about to be able to directly negotiate, we're not likely to see their unicorns run into a brick wall.

** Although Labour could aim for a minority government and just dare others to vote against them. Or pick just one of the other two parties to have a formal agreement with.

Comments

[andrewducker]

I do wonder about whether the Labour position is actually "Whatever would cause the Conservative Party to implode if Theresa May offered it to us."

And yes, I'd much rather that coalition than a Labour majority.

[nojay]

The Labour position is written down on a piece of paper and you can read it rather than wondering. The Labour Party Conference decision last year was basically "leave the EU, Customs Union or similar, absolutely no 'No Deal' crash-out". The NEC has since modified that to include a second referendum if no practical withdrawal agreement consensus can be reached with the baby-eating Tories. Labour is aware of the Conservative Party's habit of snacking on kiddie kebabs and is quite rightly keeping them at arms' length in the "negotiations" currently going on despite PM May telling them to sit down, shut up and do as they're told.

The Lib Dems will join a coalition with anyone to get their feet under the table as proved by their previous gig acting as a ventriloquist's dummy for the baby-eating Tories. The SNP, I don't see them getting 50-odd MPs in a GE ever again but they'd want a guarantee for another Independence Referendum from Labour if they held the balance of power.

[andrewducker]

Oh yes, I know that the Labour party have an awful Brexit policy.

Delighted to see them doing badly at the council elections. Hoping they do even worse for MEPs.

[dewline]

And that Farage's crowd does even worse than that.

[andrewducker]

Oh yes, absolutely.

In a ranked system Labour would be my fourth choice. Farage would get nothing.

[danieldwilliam]

Current opinion polls put the SNP in a range that tops out at 53. Labour 1 seat, Lib Dems 4, Tories 1. Depends on the breaks. There are lots of seats with narrow majorities.

[danieldwilliam]

Just because the Labour Party policy is written down it doesn't mean it isn't designed primarily to cause the Tories the maximum discomfort.

[mountainkiss]

Sadly I do not think their position is that coherent.

[skington]

Labour's position since the start has been, constantly, “just a little bit more Remainy than the Tories”. It's a more hideously-cynical form of triangulation than nearly anything that New Labour came up with, which is depressing.

[nojay]

Labour and many left-wing thinkers regard the EU with some suspicion for several reasons. One is it seems to be very business-friendly, encouraging movement of labour to depress wages in richer countries like the UK and such. They do like things such as the ECHR but don't think it goes far enough and the European Parliament gives a voice and influence to some rather obnoxious and extreme right-wing proto-Fascist groups.

The real problem is the Labour leadership and the NEC is well aware that many lifelong Labour supporters and voters are racist, sexist and anti-Semitic and they can't do without their votes come election time. They're a large part of the reason UKIP got 3.8 million votes back in 2015 since most of the Tory Leavers stayed with the baby-eating party. It was only after the Referendum and the Tories agreed to invoke Article 50 that the UKIP vote dropped to about 600,000 in the 2017 election and Labour recovered some ground on the baby-eaters with the UKIP-supporting left coming home to their traditional roots.

[andrewducker]

If they'd backed AV wholeheartedly that would be less of an issue.

And those awful Labour supporters are thankfully less numerous than the more decent ones.

https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/labour-party/news/101666/backing-brexit-will-cost-labour-more-votes-iraq