haggis: (Default)

[personal profile] haggis 2019-02-05 06:04 pm (UTC)(link)
Leaving aside the doomsday scenarios (which are not included in the UN models or the models in the Wired article) ...

I do not believe even wannabe theocrats like Pence can substantially roll back the consistent and global demographic changes that are lowering birth rate. They are having some success at reducing access to legal abortion services in the US but since both demand and the technologies exist, abortion will continue to be available, even if it is DIY or illegal or requires a trip abroad/out of state. Abortion pills can be sent by post which is really hard to block. To be brutal, backstreet abortions have a much higher risk of complications that cause infertility or even death - which reduces the birthrate.

Abortion access is being reduced in the US - lots of other jurisdictions are widening it eg Ireland, IoM and several South American countries. Apart from the US, I believe abortion is most restricted in countries where the Catholic Church has a strong influence. That influence is being drastically reduced by the revelations about abuse cover-ups.

The hardcore theocrats want to reduce access to contraception but that will be an even harder sell outside their clique. If it passes, I would foresee a thriving black market and the law being routinely flouted.

Finally, theocrats like Pence are also white supremacists. Their concern is white women breeding and everyone else deported or sterilised. So even if they acquire the power to ban contraception, they are not interested in increasing the global birthrate, just the birthrate in specific locations.