Brexit: What next?

[andrewducker]

So, the vote is off. Which means it can't be amended.

When does May bring forward the vote - which needs to be passed for the deal to take hold?

If I was in her shoes, and I _really_ wanted the vote to pass, I'd schedule it in for March 28th, the day before Brexit day. Basically saying "You either vote this through or it's No Deal".

But if she does that, how long until enough of the DUP and her own party decide that this is so self-destructive that it's worth a vote of confidence?

(I'm not sure what she thinks she's going to get from the EU which will make people happier about the backstop.)

Comments

[andrewducker]

You need to be a member of the House of Commons or the House of Lords and command. "the confidence of the House". (ie 50% of MPs will support you).

Not had one from the Lords in over a century, but theoretically still possible.

[nojay]

They don't need to be a member of the House or the Lords, strictly speaking but it's a given that to get 50% or more of MPs to follow your lead you have to be one of "the boys and girls", they have to know you and have worked with you.

There's nothing written down anywhere about how things like this are done, it's just done the way things have always been done until a change is needed and other things can be done then. Yay for an unwritten Constitution!

[doug]

I dunno, I think the principle that the Prime Minister needs to appear in the chamber of the House to make statements and answer questions is strongly established enough that it amounts to a requirement for them to be a member. And while our constitution can be classed as unwritten that doesn't mean there aren't documents where it's written down. So, for instance, the Cabinet Manual says "Members of the Government are normally Members of the House of Commons or the House of Lords", which does leave an abnormal appointment to Government as a possibility, but later it makes it clear this doesn't apply to a Prime Minster: "By modern convention, the Prime Minister always sits in the House of Commons", with a footnote that the Marquess of Salisbury was PM in the late C19th/early C20th.

But, as you say, if it was expedient and widely agreed that a new convention should be established then we could do that. Many things are up in the air at the moment, but I am confident that changing this principle is not one of them.