Brexit: Reality catches up with Theresa May

[andrewducker]

Yesterday was not a good day for Theresa May.

Talking to the press she was 'visibly angry and shaking' saying "If there are concerns from the European Union, lets hear what those concerns are and sit down and look at those concerns." - the article I read that in continued to explain that those concerns have been clearly spelled out by the EU (not wanting to split the single market, not wanting to delegate EU customs checks to a non-member state, and not wanting to give UK service providers a competitive advantage over those on the continent).

She has form for shouting at the EU, trying to work around them, and complaining when she can't bypass carefully laid out legal agreements by blustering. It's working about as well now as it did then.

My favourite response being from this ex-negotiator for the UK at Europe, talking about the negotiation process so far:

It has been mishandled at every possible turn.

No attempt to build consensus at home, work cross-party or cross-UK nations, unwillingness to take account of or even understand EU27 legal and political realities, gaslighting of the population, constant attempts to blame others, obvious untruths about consequences, unwillingness to listen to advice or expertise, attempts to bypass Parliament, insulting negotiating partners (both their intelligence and outright), denial of the need for trade-offs, arbitrary red lines based on nothing, ruling out reasonable options definitively before negotiations, negotiating at home rather than in negotiations, the list goes on.

That’s even forgetting invoking Art50 with no plan then taking over a year to come up with on. Every single one of them was by May and UKGov’s own choice. It did not have to be like this.

I am not sure who is currently advising her about the EU negotiations, but whatever advice she is getting is either terrible, or she's ignoring it. The deputy political editor for The Times says that she was warned it would be disastrous, but ignored the advice as too gloomy.

And that seems standard for how the UK has been behaving. "Just ignore the advice about how awful it will be, chin up, we'll be victorious in the end." All of which makes me think that we could do with teaching schoolkids less about Word War 2 and more about The Suez Crisis.

And all of which explains why my Twitter feed this morning has an advert on it, paid for by the British government, trying to sell me on how the Chequers agreement will be just great:


So, Chequers is resolutely dead, and we're heading for No Deal, right as Theresa May is going into a Conservative Party Conference which looks to be even worse than last year's mess. Things have become so bad inside the Conservative Party that a chunk of them have set up an alternative party conference down the road.

Any bets on when the whole house of cards collapses?

Comments

Conference season

[nojay]

...is upon us. The Conservatives will gather in Birmingham in a couple of weeks time and PM May has to be shouty and defiant at the EU right now to keep her colleagues' knives out of her back. I personally don't think she'll succeed but even if she does she's going to come out of conference trailing blood regardless.

Boris the Johnson has started his attack run, going on about hajibs and suicide vests but no-one in the Party really regards him as any kind of future PM. The Trump Effect might cut in though, many many delegates at Conference like hearing his xenophobic blatherings.

Traditionally a stalking-horse candidate[1] like Boris is on a suicide run, peeling off defenders and opening the way for a "more in sorrow than in anger" fellow who will reluctantly step forward for the good of the Party (and the Nation too, at least the more well-heeled segment of it and damn the Poors). We could have the first double-barrelled PM since Alec Douglas-Home by Xmas.

[1] Jeremy Corbyn is the exception that proves the rule -- the neo-Blairite elites in the Parliamentary Labour Party failed to recognise that, actually, being nice to poor people is considered a decent thing to do and the ordinary Labour supporter voted overwhelmingly for the unreformed Socialist low-class scruff from the 1970s rather than their own carefully-selected professional Tory-lite apparatchik.

[ggreig]

It seems likely it's going to run to 29th March 2019 and no-one is going to do anything sensible in the meantime. Assuming no-one in UK politics has a sudden attack of common sense - and it's getting to be too late for that anyway - the collapse will start then, though it may take a while for most people to realise that it's really happening. By which time it will be too late to do much about it.

The only possible reason the EU might relent on something is to try to avoid the deterioration of Irish politics to pre-GFA; and I don't think they can afford to do that if they want to retain the four freedoms and an operating single market. I don't think they're going to blink; I think May has led the UK into a stupid position where it's become politically impossible for us to blink either. It didn't need to be this way.

[mountainkiss]

I think that the collapse will be visible very quickly after (on) 29 March 2019.

[ggreig]

I think there's a fair bit of truth in what you say, but I'm a bit less sure because the jingoistic press will be busy cheerleading and saying how wonderful it is to be free and nothing is going wrong.

[mountainkiss]

I think that if nothing can get in or out of the country, it's going to be noticeable to people quite quickly despite what's in the papers?

[ggreig]

But who will get the blame? Our incompetent politicians, or the maliciousness of foreigners?

[mountainkiss]

According to this article (from Andy's links on 18/9), perhaps the former more than one might think.

[ggreig]

Fingers crossed.

[mountainkiss]

Well, fingers crossed for deal.

[andrewducker]

Fingers crossed for it becoming incredibly obvious how awful and pointless the whole thing is, and it being called off.

[mountainkiss]

That would be nice but I think it’s pretty unlikely.

[danieldwilliam]

Assuming there is ink to print with and paper to print on.

[ggreig]

Estimate now revised to 13:45. :-)

[xenophanean]

I still think it might be:

8: Wait.

Essentially, May simply can't accept anything else at this point, as the Brexiters still have time to take her down and force a no-deal. By this theory, we'll only see any of what the true policy is once she's in a position to sign off on it without anyone being able to get in the way.

If she aims for a deal which is effectively the EEA with a new hat, and 2 fewer toes, the Brexiters will take her down before a party vote. If, however, she can leave it till it's too late, it's done, we're not in Europe. I think the Brexit parties will be hard pressed to get the country to start the whole rig-marole again.

There is also the possibility that it's all ludicrous incompetence, but if so, her enemies are sure having a hard time getting rid of her, and they're not achieving anything of what they want at the moment.

[bugshaw]

Hollow laugh. After years of giving other people impossible projects (NHS, education, councils) it looks like they've given themselves one.

[danieldwilliam]

I think the ERG have the votes to trigger a vote of No Confidence but I don't think they have the votes to win one.

I am not sure that the other factions of the party would like to get rid of May right now. They don't want someone from the ERG in charge. I think none of the likely candidates for leader from Not-the-ERG parts of the party want to take over from May now. Not if they could take over from May after Brexit. Also, they probably reckon that until Brexit is over (one way or another) a Remainer won't win the Tory Party Members' vote.

So, probably May wins the Vote of No Confidence.

I think if they trigger a vote of No Confidence but don't win, both the No Confidence vote and the actual leadership election then they will be in a world of pain. If you come at the king, you have best not miss.

From the point of view of advancing their cause the ERG, the ERG might be better following the doctrine of the Fleet in Being.

But maybe not. Maybe the ERG have lost their head or the Remainers think they have the numbers to put two non-ERG supporters to the final ballot.

[andrewducker]

Frankly, I'm not sure the ERG are meaningful except insofar as they will prevent a a conservative majority for anything.

It's more about whether the anti Brexit group (across all MPs) can be made big enough to bring her down. And if so, how bad do things have to get before they do?

[danieldwilliam]

The rest of the Tory Party prize unity over the EU. The ERG prize the EU over unity, especially when they think the rest of the Tory Party will fall in to line behind Brexit in order to preserve unity.

For unity read not being deselected by their Brexit voting constituency assocations.

[danieldwilliam]

I think we may have fucked this up. This may be the first time a nation has destroyed itself without an actual civil war.

I say we, I mean the Conservative Party, but they ironically they seem to want to socialise their fuckwittery as widely as possible.

I did not want to be in a lifeboat at all but here I am. I did not want to be in this particular lifeboat, but here I am. I did not want to be in this lifeboat with these people steering but, nevertheless, here I am and here they are. I did not want to be sailing in this direction, but, through no fault of my own, I am being carried away, against my will.

Despite the mumbers May might just have been beaten badly and publically enough by the EU for the ERG to run mad and try and replace her. Which will just waste more time and energy and what passes for thought in the modern Conservative Party.

I shall start stocking up with food. Also, cigarettes, nylons and bicycle puncture repair kit ration coupons.

I also intend to invite my Brexiteer brother-in-law to stay with us in late March. There's good eating on him, it would be a shame to waste it.

[andrewducker]

Totally would be.

And yes, I agree.

[danieldwilliam]

I think we draw the wrong lesson from World War 2.

We didn't muddle through, full of amatuer charm and the Right Attitude no more so than we did in 1714, 1814 or 1914.

We executed the same plan we always use for major land wars in Europe, have the world's biggest navy and the world's richest banks and the world's cheapest army. Use the navy to keep the Europeans in Europe whilst we spend ten years spending the the banks' money to make our army the world's best for the next ten years, usually by hiring foreigners to come and join it.

What went wrong in the Suez Crisis is that we attempted to execute the same plan but without the big navy or the deep pockets or the time.

Brexit would be easier if still had the world's largest navy and the world's richest banks and ten years but we don't.

We've the notion of the gifted, lucky amatuer who somehow seems to muddle through pluck and good humour to bamboozle our foes for centuries but itonly works if we don't fall for it ourselves.

[danieldwilliam]

Also, we were the good guys in 1939.

This time we're just a bunch of cockwombling, inept fucktards, wearing an IRA balaclava the wrong way round, intent on punching ourselves in the bollocks with one hand in retaliation for the other hand poking us in the eye whilst negotiating in a creol of Welsh, Flemish and Outrage with a Frenchman and ourselves. And that's just the Government.

[cmcmck]

My heart bleeds for us poor saps-the ones who take the comeback, rather than for our political 'representatives'.

Les politicos a la lanterne!

[birguslatro]

The Suez Crisis is a good example. Then it hadn't sunk in that the US calls the shots now. And now it's the EU wearing that boot. You have to please them if you want to come out of this even halfways OK.

I suspect many with a conservative bent though, whether rich or poor, will be happy with No Deal. The vote for Brexit was emotional, not rational.