andrewducker: (Default)
andrewducker ([personal profile] andrewducker) wrote2018-09-12 12:00 pm

Interesting Links for 12-09-2018

danieldwilliam: (Default)

[personal profile] danieldwilliam 2018-09-12 02:32 pm (UTC)(link)
Sorry, I realise I've not been quite precise enough in my language.

We can be in a state where we are still technically in the EU but in the process of transitioning to the EEA but that that transition is irreversible. I.E. that we have taken the decision to join the EEA once our transitional arrangements within the EU have expired and can not proceedurally reverse that decision.

I don't think it is going to be impossible for us to rejoin. Particularlly if we remain in close regulatory alignment. The EU will always have room for prosperous liberal democracies. They may want us to join Schengen and the Euro, or at least promise to at some point in the future. I'm not all together sure that they would insist. The prize of having Britain rejoin the EU might well be big enough on its own. Big economy. Big change of mind. Big apology.
mountainkiss: (Default)

[personal profile] mountainkiss 2018-09-12 02:36 pm (UTC)(link)
I do not know that I assume we will remain a prosperous liberal democracy.
danieldwilliam: (Default)

[personal profile] danieldwilliam 2018-09-12 02:41 pm (UTC)(link)
Prosperous liberal democracy is a broad church.

I think my assumption with regard to the UK economy post Brexit is that it takes some sort of negative shock in 2019-2021 (ranging from big to huge) and then grows more slowly in the period 2021-2040.

"Huge" might well involve a temporary disruption to reliable food supplies and the death of hundreds of thousands of people but that would still leave us more prosperous than Albania or Bulgaria or various North African states.

I do have some concerns about the quality of the liberalness and the quality of the democraticness of our liberal democracy. We migth become more authoritarian and have a more instrusive security infrastructure but I think we are unlikely to be a full on fascist state.

But, yeah, always worth bearing in mind that prosperous liberal democracy might be a temporary state.