andrewducker (![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png)
andrewducker) wrote2017-06-09 08:47 am
andrewducker) wrote2017-06-09 08:47 am
So, those election results
Good news: Hung parliament!
Bad news: Conservatives + DUP coalition is the only one that can get a majority
Even worse news: DUP are, frankly, worse than the Conservatives, being the party who have been blocking marriage equality in Northern Ireland
Sad News: If it wasn't for Unionists in Scotland voting Conservative to "send the SNP a message*" we'd have the possibility of a Lab+SNP+LibDem+PC+Green alliance.
As it is, Theresa May wins this year's award for "Conservative MP holding a vote to get her party into line, and throwing the country into chaos when it goes wrong".
Chances of another election this year: High
Chances of more people voting tactically at the next one, and getting the numbers to push the Conservatives out: Who the fuck knows.
Chances of any negotiation of Article 50, which continues to count down, getting underway: Slim
Just to note:
Purely vote-wise, Lab+SNP+LibDem is over 50%. Fuck FPTP.
*A completely pointless one, as it's the Scottish Government who pushes for Independence, and this election doesn't change that.
Bad news: Conservatives + DUP coalition is the only one that can get a majority
Even worse news: DUP are, frankly, worse than the Conservatives, being the party who have been blocking marriage equality in Northern Ireland
Sad News: If it wasn't for Unionists in Scotland voting Conservative to "send the SNP a message*" we'd have the possibility of a Lab+SNP+LibDem+PC+Green alliance.
As it is, Theresa May wins this year's award for "Conservative MP holding a vote to get her party into line, and throwing the country into chaos when it goes wrong".
Chances of another election this year: High
Chances of more people voting tactically at the next one, and getting the numbers to push the Conservatives out: Who the fuck knows.
Chances of any negotiation of Article 50, which continues to count down, getting underway: Slim
Just to note:
Purely vote-wise, Lab+SNP+LibDem is over 50%. Fuck FPTP.
*A completely pointless one, as it's the Scottish Government who pushes for Independence, and this election doesn't change that.
no subject
I think Sturgeon's plan was never to hold one "now" but to hold one at the back end of the Brexit negotiations once the reality of the outcome had sunk in a bit.
The 35 SNP MP's probably have more influence over a minority government than 50+ SNP MP's had over a majority Tory government so they could be able to winkle a new Edinburgh Agreement out of the Tories.
Public opinion on the independence question remains at about 55:45. It doesn't seem to have moved since Sept 2014. What I think has changed is that pro-independence voters have disassociated themselves from the SNP or think the independence question isn't pressing. They still support independence but they are voting for other parties on other issues.
So, in the event that as Brexit ripens it produces a majority for independence in Scotland then the SNP probably have the political wherewithal to have a referendum. This is probably more true if any Tories in marginal seats have heart attacks or sign book deals over the next 18 months.
(I don't hold the above view very strongly.)