andrewducker (![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png)
andrewducker) wrote2017-06-09 08:47 am
andrewducker) wrote2017-06-09 08:47 am
So, those election results
Good news: Hung parliament!
Bad news: Conservatives + DUP coalition is the only one that can get a majority
Even worse news: DUP are, frankly, worse than the Conservatives, being the party who have been blocking marriage equality in Northern Ireland
Sad News: If it wasn't for Unionists in Scotland voting Conservative to "send the SNP a message*" we'd have the possibility of a Lab+SNP+LibDem+PC+Green alliance.
As it is, Theresa May wins this year's award for "Conservative MP holding a vote to get her party into line, and throwing the country into chaos when it goes wrong".
Chances of another election this year: High
Chances of more people voting tactically at the next one, and getting the numbers to push the Conservatives out: Who the fuck knows.
Chances of any negotiation of Article 50, which continues to count down, getting underway: Slim
Just to note:
Purely vote-wise, Lab+SNP+LibDem is over 50%. Fuck FPTP.
*A completely pointless one, as it's the Scottish Government who pushes for Independence, and this election doesn't change that.
Bad news: Conservatives + DUP coalition is the only one that can get a majority
Even worse news: DUP are, frankly, worse than the Conservatives, being the party who have been blocking marriage equality in Northern Ireland
Sad News: If it wasn't for Unionists in Scotland voting Conservative to "send the SNP a message*" we'd have the possibility of a Lab+SNP+LibDem+PC+Green alliance.
As it is, Theresa May wins this year's award for "Conservative MP holding a vote to get her party into line, and throwing the country into chaos when it goes wrong".
Chances of another election this year: High
Chances of more people voting tactically at the next one, and getting the numbers to push the Conservatives out: Who the fuck knows.
Chances of any negotiation of Article 50, which continues to count down, getting underway: Slim
Just to note:
Purely vote-wise, Lab+SNP+LibDem is over 50%. Fuck FPTP.
*A completely pointless one, as it's the Scottish Government who pushes for Independence, and this election doesn't change that.
no subject
Between ambitious cabinet ministers, disgruntled backbenchers and the real political difficulty of sheperding Brexit and any other legislation through a confidence and supply arrangement with the DUP there is plenty to go wrong for her. Whether that's her losing a vote of no confidence or being sacked as Conservative Leader or deciding that she, in fact, doesn't want the job I don't know.
I think perhaps the main advantage she has is that maybe no one in the Tory Party fancies being the next Tory leader given the circumstances.