So, those election results

[andrewducker]

Good news: Hung parliament!
Bad news: Conservatives + DUP coalition is the only one that can get a majority
Even worse news: DUP are, frankly, worse than the Conservatives, being the party who have been blocking marriage equality in Northern Ireland
Sad News: If it wasn't for Unionists in Scotland voting Conservative to "send the SNP a message*" we'd have the possibility of a Lab+SNP+LibDem+PC+Green alliance.

As it is, Theresa May wins this year's award for "Conservative MP holding a vote to get her party into line, and throwing the country into chaos when it goes wrong".

Chances of another election this year: High
Chances of more people voting tactically at the next one, and getting the numbers to push the Conservatives out: Who the fuck knows.
Chances of any negotiation of Article 50, which continues to count down, getting underway: Slim

Just to note:
Purely vote-wise, Lab+SNP+LibDem is over 50%. Fuck FPTP.

*A completely pointless one, as it's the Scottish Government who pushes for Independence, and this election doesn't change that.

Comments

[doug]

I'm sure there'll be some sort of Tory-DUP deal

Hah! Well that prediction held up well for once: immediately after clicking Post on that I saw a headline "Theresa May reaches deal with DUP to form government after shock election result".

[calimac]

I haven't been so gobsmacked by something in British politics since the time Edwina Currie revealed you-know-what, almost as unholy a union of deplorables.

[calimac]

So what does the DUP want anyway? They don't want special status for NI, because that would create trade barriers with the rest of the UK. But they also don't want a hard border with the Republic. The only way to avoid one of these things is for the UK to remain in the EU, but they don't want that either. So what do they want?

[doug]

Special status for NI is also anathema to the DUP because it looks like a stepping stone to splitting off NI from the rest of the UK - Sinn Fein are keen on that plan for a good reason.

I think the DUP want a sort of EEA/Common Market type arrangement. It's the only arrangement that'd gets them what they want. It'd probably be reasonably popular as a muddy compromise by most people in most parts of the UK. The kicker, though, is that the rest of the EU will almost certainly not agree without the UK also accepting freedom of movement, contribution to the budget, and EU court jurisdiction, like Norway and Switzerland - and those are all anathema to the hardline Brexiteers in the Tory party, who are not going to be in a mood to compromise with a wafer-thin majority. Although David Davis was making emollient noises that way this morning, so you never know.