Shooting yourself in the face

[andrewducker]

Apparently David Cameron is being advised to take control of the Scottish situation by preempting the Scottish government holding a referendum and announcing it themselves.

Right now I feel pretty much neutral about Scottish Independence. I can see positives and negatives.

But if a Westminster government starts trying to manipulate what happens because of the election up here, I'm going to be voting in favour of it, and so will an awful lot of other people. Because it's exactly that kind of behaviour which has a fair chunk of the population wanting independence in the first place.

Comments

[the_future_modernes]

I hope he does it and it backfires on his arse. Whatever makes England think that they need to run other people's countries in this the year of our lord 2011?

[emceeaich]

Woah, I have not been following the situation closely.

[pseudomonas]

I've just realised that if Scotland leaves the Union, then the Conservatives have an overall parliamentary majority in the rest of the UK. Erk. Cameron may be playing this to lose.

[pseudomonas]

Just checking my maths. There are 650 seats, reduced to 591 without the 59 in Scotland. The threshold for majority is now 591/2 rounded up = 296. The Tories have 307 seats, minus the one in Scotland is 306. Bum.

[andrewhickey.info]

This is basically the only reason the Union stays together - because otherwise you'd have a permanent Tory majority in England/Wales and a permanent $socialistishparty (previously Labour, now probably SNP) majority North of the border. So English Labour and Scottish Tories hate the idea.

[pseudomonas]

If Scotland separates during the next 4 years, does the govt in Westminster turn pure Tory?

[andrewhickey.info]

Interesting question. I *strongly* suspect that any split would be timed to happen neatly with England/Wales General Elections, to give people on both sides time to prepare.

But if not, the Government is in the control of David Cameron, who remains Prime Minister as long as he can convince the Queen he can command a majority in the Commons. In the constitution (such as it is, and unwritten as it is) that's irrespective of parties. So the question is, would Cameron prefer to continue to govern in partnership with the Lib Dems or not, and if he did prefer to, would his party allow him to?

(Also, I don't know what the constitutional position would be for Scottish MPs. When boundaries are redrawn, MPs stay in until the next election when their seat disappears. Would that happen for MPs whose country had seceded? The West Lothian question writ large...)

[pseudomonas]

I imagine that Cameron would choose to govern with Conservatives alone given the chance; I was more wondering whether all Scottish MPs would just leave Westminster or what, as per your last paragraph.

[pseudomonas]

I don't think you'd *actually* get a permanent Tory majority; I suspect the Downs model would kick in and instead Labour and Conservatives would migrate rightwards. Still not somewhere I'd want to live.

[andrewhickey.info]

You'd be surprised - even in 2005 the Tories got a higher share of the vote in England than Labour, and the new constituency boundaries would have given them a majority of 20 at the last election.
The interesting thing actually is that the Labour and Tory votes are so geographically concentrated that there's a very good chance the Lib Dems would become the official opposition within a Parliament or two in England/Wales (while Labour would become the de facto Conservative Party in Scotland pretty quickly).

[matgb]

Exactly.

Downs and Duverger--Tories tend to win a lot of their seats due to split votes, and I don't care what anyone thinks, most Lib Dem voters are more anti-Tory, although some are anti-Labour (mostly merely anti-incompetence which historically means Labour though).

There're a lot of seats where a bit more tactical voting sees less Tories.


Or, of course, the LDs collapse.

I am thinking that preemting the whole thing by creating an English Parliament elected by PR might be a good way around it though...

[marrog.livejournal.com]

I completely agree - it would be exactly the same calculating, "Right question at the wrong time" move that he pulled with AV.

If I were David Cameron, I would be very wary of pissing off the only leader in the whole of the UK with a straight-up majority - particularly when that leader is Alex Salmond, who is an extremely talented politician.

[missedith01.livejournal.com]

He's being advised ... what??? Good grief ... by who? How utterly crass and stupid. (Are you sure this isn't a story being put about by the more devious elements of the "yes" camp?)

[andrewducker]

I assume the Telegraph checked its sources (and is more likely to have sources in the Tory ranks).

A Conservative friend of mine also seemed to view it as a good strategy. I haven't gotten around to telling him what the likely reaction will be...

[missedith01.livejournal.com]

You shouldn't need to tell him. Ain't it obvious?

[andrewducker]

Apparently many things are not obvious to some people :->

[missedith01.livejournal.com]

But, you know, gravity, the wetness of water, the sky being generally in an up direction ... some things surely don't have to be explained all the time.

[andrewducker]

I mentioned it at lunchtime, and he said "The scottish people are too (small c) conservative to vote for independence, particularly given the recent economic collapse. They'll remember RBS falling, and worry what would happen if that situation reoccurred."

[atreic.livejournal.com]

Surely a yes vote is just what the Tories want? No need to pump more money up to those dodgy liberal outposts, and a huge chunk of non-tory MP removed from the house of commons [don't they actually have a majority if we lose Scotland, or jolly near?]

[marrog.livejournal.com]

Chris Huhne made an interesting suggestion in the Indie (or was it the Grauniad? Hard to tell some days) regarding this.

He commented that if Scotland declared independence, England would then be forced into either electoral reform toward PR or have to put up with Tory governments in perpituity.

While I think there's an element of bitter scaremongering ("You idiot Labour voters - you've just doomed us all!") it's certainly true that the Blue counties would hold a lot more sway without Scotland propping up the Red vote.

[missedith01.livejournal.com]

That's why a lot of people down here have a "Move to Scotland, Quick! Before They Close the Border!" bag packed in the attic.

[0olong.livejournal.com]

They certainly don't want to be seen to want that, though. It simply wouldn't do!

[marrog.livejournal.com]

MSP Murdo Fraser (who may soon be the leader of the Scottish Conservatives) was the first one to bring up the idea, on the BBC coverage of the Scottish count. He basically made a public call-out to the Tories in Westminster suggesting it.

[missedith01.livejournal.com]

Well, people say a lot of things when they're upset that they later regret. (she clutches at straws)

[marrog.livejournal.com]

Well, there's no sign of Cameron actually having made a suggestion that he would consider doing this yet. But it's certainly an idea that's spreading through Conservative opinion - there were a couple of comments on the Conservative Voice article Andy linked to yesterday saying the same thing.

[a-pawson.livejournal.com]

By Alex Salmond most probably.

[randomchris.livejournal.com]

I seem to recall Salmond pre-emptively saying something about the referendum being in the second half of this parliament - because he knows he couldn't win it at the moment. But if David Cameron announced it against the wishes of the SNP, then I might also vote in favour to piss him off.

[momentsmusicaux.livejournal.com]

Same here -- I'd likely vote yes with that in mind, and also the memory of the AV vote will still be raw: there would be an element of 'Screw you, we've got PR up here thank you very much.'

[missedith01.livejournal.com]

Now, I think we should all be calm. After all, what do we know that's new? The Tories are idiots? They're advised by idiots? Please! Let's not break up over that! Not when the future together is so ... ah ... murky and interesting.

[cairmen.livejournal.com]

OK, so David Cameron might be about to do something that would piss a whole load of people in Scotland off so badly they'd vote for independence?

And, as mentioned elsewhere, if Scotland goes independent the UK is basically one-party in perpetuity, and that party's the Tories?

So David Cameron, whilst making lots of noises about "I want the UK to remain intact", is doing stuff that looks very likely to encourage independence?

I mean, I know "never assume malice where stupidity could be the cause", but doesn't that sound a bit like he's, y'know, manipulating the situation?

[andrewducker]

As David Cameron has worked in PR for so long that he's effectively unreadable, I have _no_ idea.

[cairmen.livejournal.com]

Yeah.

I'm working on a "follow the money" principle with Cameron at the moment. He seems to have more to gain from an independant Scotland than to lose, so I assume he's for it, and whatever he says is designed to achieve the end he's looking for.

Horrible thought - maybe that explains the whole AV malarky too. As another commenter said, if Scotland goes, the rest of the UK either has to embrace a PR system or be a one-party state. So when's the ideal time for the Tories to have a referendum on whether to change the voting system? Just before they become the One Party. Should give them 20 years in power.

[andrewducker]

Labour will kick themselves a _lot_ if that happens.

[philmophlegm.livejournal.com]

Maybe he's thinking about holding a referendum on Scottish independence in England. The question could be something like:

"Do you want to continue paying higher taxes to subsidise Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland and Cornwall - Yes / No?"



Personally, I think this would be a winner. I see what the Scots get out of the union with England, but it's harder to see what the English get out of it.

[andrewducker]

A referendum on English Independence would be interesting.

[makyo.livejournal.com]

I regard the vast majority of the people who loudly call for a devolved English parliament as worryingly nationalistic barking nutcases. (Someone I vaguely knew stood for the English Democrats in the last general election. Amusingly, and deservedly, he was beaten even by the Monster Raving Loony candidate.) But there have certainly been times where I've wondered if the rest of England declaring at least partial independence from London wouldn't be such a lousy idea.

So much national policy gets formulated by people who don't really venture outside the M25 unless they absolutely have to, and consequently tends to be very London-centric, largely ignoring or de-prioritising the needs of the rest of the country. Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland had it even worse for a long time, but I think the balance has been redressed somewhat since devolution.

[matgb]

I regard the vast majority of the people who loudly call for a devolved English parliament as worryingly nationalistic barking nutcases.

That's because they mostly are. Some aren't, there are even some Lib Dem MPs in favour (although if you remove the 'nationalistic' bit that applies to the one I know for sure does), but yeah, huge numbers of them are racist nutjobs.

Oh, and the leadership of the EDs have absolutely no idea what the legal definition of racism is, and if they try and call me on that again publicly I'll take them to court for defamation (because I do know how the law works).

They are good for a few laughs, but not if they get elected Executive Mayor of a city near you (I hate elected mayors, and Doncaster is still suffering).

Agree completely with your last paragraph--coming from Devon, and living in Yorkshire,having lived in London with policy types as friends, ye gods some of them are clueless or go native far too quickly.

[0olong.livejournal.com]

When I lived in London I generally had the feeling that the city would be better off if it was independent. Could be a winner all round! London gets to ditch the Tory-dominated southlands, everywhere else gets to be run by people who know what's going on outside of the city limits...

[missedith01.livejournal.com]

Well, speaking as a person who was born and has always lived in the bit immediately below Scotland, I don't really think of it like that. I don't think of myself as English. I think of myself as British. So the question, to me, is less "Would you like to lay down this irksome burden?" and more "How would you fancy losing your left leg?"

[philmophlegm.livejournal.com]

Actually, I'm entirely with you on that. I was born and brought up in that part of the United Kingdom to the left of Cheshire and now live in that part of the United Kingdom immediately to the left of Devon. (And my parents are both English).

I consider myself British, Welsh, Cornish and English. The order changes according to who I'm trying to annoy...

[matgb]

Heh--I've started calling myself a Dumnonian Celt, that seems to annoy everyone, especially Mebyon types. I especially do this if they mention stannary rights--I used to live just outside the ancient stannary town of Ashburton...

I don't want to lose Scotland or stop being British, too much civilisation north of the border. But ultimately self determination is king.

And I hear it's a nice place to live, and expats get to vote...

[andrewducker]

You won't lose Scotland. It'll still be right where it always was :->

[matgb]

Yeah, but we'll lose Scottish MPs. One in particular is someone I really like seeing around. Plus, it'd mess up her personal life, she's marrying the MP for Cheltenham, they work together currently. That'd be one hell of a commute/long distance relationship...

Scotland/Britain gives a degree of culture that England alone lacks.

Besides, we used up the oil revenue bailing out your banks ;-)

Self determination

[0olong.livejournal.com]

I never really got this 'self determination' idea. I mean, I'm all for determining myself, but that doesn't seem to be what people mean at all. It's always 'self-determination for the Scottish people' or whatever, but Scotland doesn't have a self, and why would that be better in principle than 'self-determination for the British people'? And would it be better or worse than 'self-determination for the people of Marchmont'?

That said, I am broadly in favour of less centralised power in general.

[missedith01.livejournal.com]

Plus, if you mention taxes, people will start on about North Sea oil and gas. Let's not go there! Harmony! Harmony!

[philmophlegm.livejournal.com]

Is that like the line in Carry on Cleo (you know "Infamy, infamy, they've all got it in for me!")?

"Harmony! Harmony! They're all being subsidised with our money!"


North Sea oil and gas (or at least the bits nearest to Scotland) is one thing, but what about the Royal Bank of Scotland nationalisation? Presumably, the Scots would want their bank back in any independence negotiation...