Politically speaking

[andrewducker]

So, if Egypt stops being a dictarorship, what are the chances of it continuing to blockade Gaza?

Because that's going to be all sorts of interesting...

Comments

[gonzo21.livejournal.com]

Egypt won't stop being a dictatorship though. The people seem to be protesting against the civilian government, and the president-for-life. But the real power in the country lies with the military.

Seems to me the most likely outcome is the military will get rid of the president, place a new puppet in office, and things will carry on as before... much like what seems to have happened in Tunisia.

[i_kender]

Hey, excuse me... but Egypt is not a dictatorship. Not the way you mean. It's a Republic - check Wikipedia for more info.

And actually, compared to a lot of countries in the Middle East, it's fairly democratic and fairly secular too.

In fact, one of the more worrying things for me about the current unrest is if the major opposition party The Muslim Brotherhood take power... they have made claims for maintaining an Egyptian democracy and ending poverty, but on the other hard they are fairly hardcore religious... for example, they would want to re-establish Sharia (Islamic) law.

[andrewducker]

It's a republic in the same way that the Democratic People's Republic of North Korea is. It's been under Emergency Law for 40 years, with only one party allowed for the vast majority of that time (and people the government didn't like disallowed at the only multiparty election). That very much fits my picture of a dictatorship. Particularly when the son of the current president was being groomed to replace him.

[gonzo21.livejournal.com]

Oh, I thought it was a dictatorship? The Egyptian professor guy on BBC News 24 yesterday was saying that the military were the real power in the country, and it was pretty much what they said that goes, and that the civilian republic part of the constitution had very little real influence?

That Muslim brotherhood bunch do sound a little scary. Apparently one of the things the protestors have been wanting is all of the prisoners released from jails who have been locked up without charge, but, a guy was saying on the news, most of those prisoners are really hardcore militant Muslim Brotherhood extremists, that were locked up because they were likely to kidnap and or blow up western tourists.

So letting them out might be very right on from a human rights position, but potentially very bad for society.

[i_kender]

Oh, and the blockade on Gaza on the Egyptian end? That has more to do with fear of reprisals from Israel than any ideological bias.

[andrewducker]

The question is whether the same fear would be there under a different leader.

[i_kender]

Hey, sorry if we rubbed each other the wrong way in this thread. For the record, I'm delighted Mubarak has gone and big changes are afoot in Egypt now.

But - if you look at my posts today - you can see why it touched rather close to home!

[andrewducker]

I entirely understand. And I wasn't rubbed the wrong way by your comments - more information is always good.

I hope that the situation in Bahrain is resolved as peacefully as possible.

I do see a slow unfolding of liberty and democracy as being pretty much inevitable, but I'm not by any means convinced that it's going to happy in a big bang - social change takes a loooong time.

[i_kender]

I completely agree :)

[phillipalden.livejournal.com]

I didn't think about it from that standpoint. You're right when you say it could "get interesting."