Bill Gates on HDVD/Blu-Ray

[andrewducker]

There's currently a major power struggle going on over the successor to DVD.  Bill Gates has this to say, which I agree with:

Understand that this is the last  physical format there will ever be. Everything's going to be streamed directly or on a hard disk. So, in this way, it's even unclear how much this one counts.

I can see the next generation being useful - broadband isn't wide-spread enough for everyone at this point.  But it's definitely taking over as a delivery medium - the only software I've installed from CD recently has been Windows itself.  Everything else has been downloaded, and the same goes for most video and music.

Comments

[octopoid-horror.livejournal.com]

The problem is one of people's perceptions.

People are not willing to pay as much for things downloaded as they are for things bought in shops.

Would the general public be willing to pay £16 to download a film, without having a physical thing to show for it?

If not, then how are the companies going to make money when DVDs stop selling? (assuming that Andy is somehow right, which is usually unlikely).

You can charge people more when they have something to show for it. People work that way. Not everyone, especially not the kind of geeks who want everything small, streamlined and shiny.

But the cost is going to be the central issue. If it's cheap to download a film, and if DVDs (or the next format) stop making mony, then the loss has to be made up somehow. And sales of DVDs has shown just what kind of inflated amounts people -will- pay.

If, for example, online music massively takes over from sales in stores, then I imagine you'll see the prices go up across the board, because profits will be impacted by selling in a cheaper form. Because people -will- spend fifteen quid for a new album where they just want a couple of songs. And if they aren't buying CDs anymore, but downloading cheap mp3s, the companies are losing their money.

They are not running a public service. Right now, online music (as regards the distribution channels and methods) is still in its infancy. It's the province of some big groups, but is slowly branching out.