Yes, with an average age of 62 I don't see how it can help but accelerate.
I have some sympathy with people who are caught up in what must seem like some very fast changes happening all around them.
I do wonder how economically feasible the Church of Scotland *is* at this point. If it was to go from a standing start, how many buildings it would be using, etc. Basically, are they cutting back as far as they should be, to make themselves stable for a decade, or will they be in a constant cost-cutting mode for the next couple of decades until they reach that level.
Say 70,000 active members of a congregation in the Church of Scotland. Assume 300 is minimal viable size of a congregation (I am guessing a lot here). That implies something like 230 CoS churches in Scotland. Let's round that up to 250 to cover isolated island and highlands communities.
Per capita Scotland that's one CoS church per 21,000 or 22,0000 people, or between 20-25 Church of Scotland churches in Edinburgh. You could perhaps be more efficient in the cities and have 10 in Edinburgh but larger church congregations.
The wikipedia page for the Church of Scotland says they have about 1,350 congregations. I think that is crudely 5 times as many congregations as I think they need.
That makes sense. 300 seems like quite a lot of people, but actually it makes sense from a "number of people you'd need to be paying towards upkeep to sustain a church" point of view.
Being over-churched by 5x doesn't seem very sustainable. Indicates that they think they can sustain a church with 60 congregants. Which sounds expensive per congregant.
St Giles Cathedral says it has 314 seats as a music venue - but there is plenty of space not occupied by seats. St George and St Andrews on George Street has a capacity of 250. So 300 seems like it would fill a large church.
Say a Church of Scotland minister costs £40k a year, then each of the 300 people in the congregation need to be chipping in about £150 a year just for staffing one minister.
I suppose the sustainability depends on how much of an endowment the church has. If I'm reading the latest accounts correctly they have about £50m in income from investments.
There's a question about what happens to the funds under management when the church shrinks. The Church of Scotland might have a billion quid invested plus lots of property.
Yes, with an average age of 62 I don't see how it can help but accelerate.
The most interesting question is less the average age, and more the rate of change of the average age.
This was driven home to me many years ago, when I was still active in Freemasonry. There was a study run by the Scottish Rite Masons, showing that the average age of Masons was rising at a rate of eight months per year. You don't need to know math deeply to recognize the demographic deathtrap that implies, and it forever altered the way I thought about organizations, recruitment, and long-term viability...
The largest increase in median age between 2011 and 2021 was for those who identified as “Buddhist” or “Christian” (with an increase of six years for both)
![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png)
andrewducker) wrote2023-08-20 12:00 pm
no subject
I have some sympathy with people who are caught up in what must seem like some very fast changes happening all around them.
I do wonder how economically feasible the Church of Scotland *is* at this point. If it was to go from a standing start, how many buildings it would be using, etc. Basically, are they cutting back as far as they should be, to make themselves stable for a decade, or will they be in a constant cost-cutting mode for the next couple of decades until they reach that level.
no subject
Say 70,000 active members of a congregation in the Church of Scotland. Assume 300 is minimal viable size of a congregation (I am guessing a lot here). That implies something like 230 CoS churches in Scotland. Let's round that up to 250 to cover isolated island and highlands communities.
Per capita Scotland that's one CoS church per 21,000 or 22,0000 people, or between 20-25 Church of Scotland churches in Edinburgh. You could perhaps be more efficient in the cities and have 10 in Edinburgh but larger church congregations.
The wikipedia page for the Church of Scotland says they have about 1,350 congregations. I think that is crudely 5 times as many congregations as I think they need.
no subject
Being over-churched by 5x doesn't seem very sustainable. Indicates that they think they can sustain a church with 60 congregants. Which sounds expensive per congregant.
no subject
Say a Church of Scotland minister costs £40k a year, then each of the 300 people in the congregation need to be chipping in about £150 a year just for staffing one minister.
I suppose the sustainability depends on how much of an endowment the church has. If I'm reading the latest accounts correctly they have about £50m in income from investments.
no subject
Checking, it seems like there are around 70 CoS churches in Edinburgh:
https://cos.churchofscotland.org.uk/church-finder/
no subject
You and I should join.
no subject
no subject
no subject
Not that I think it'll get *that* low. And also, they will have a bunch of pension liabilities and suchlike.
no subject
no subject
no subject
The most interesting question is less the average age, and more the rate of change of the average age.
This was driven home to me many years ago, when I was still active in Freemasonry. There was a study run by the Scottish Rite Masons, showing that the average age of Masons was rising at a rate of eight months per year. You don't need to know math deeply to recognize the demographic deathtrap that implies, and it forever altered the way I thought about organizations, recruitment, and long-term viability...
no subject
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/culturalidentity/religion/articles/religionbyageandsexenglandandwales/census2021#religion-by-age