hairyears: Spilosoma viginica caterpillar: luxuriant white hair and a 'Dougal' face with antennae. Small, hairy, and venomous (Default)

[personal profile] hairyears 2023-03-20 09:06 am (UTC)(link)
It's disturbing that Russia appears to be adapting to a long war: whatever the public perception might have been, a year ago, economic and demographic analysis suggested that Russia was far less able to sustain a long war than Ukraine.

Tha sanctions have been extremely damaging. The manpower losses - both the caualties and the emigration of eligible men - are exacerbating Russia's demographic spiral.

But...

These processes are slow and we are now seeing an 'Iraq Effect' in which sanctions strenthen the regime's grip on a shrinking economy.

An increasingly criminal and corrupt economy, which is a surprising thing to say about Russia: I would not have believed that the place could get even worse without collapsing. I guess that a country on a war footing has unusual resources available for maintaining control and cohesion...

...Which brings us to propaganda, politics, and internal repression: tight control of the media and the exile of large numbers of the most intelligent and propaganda-resistant men (and women) is changing Russian society.