A quick graph on Northern Ireland voting patterns

[andrewducker]

Lots of noise about "Look at Sinn Fein! The Republicans are coming!"

So I grabbed the numbers from Wikipedia all the way back to the first NI Assembly vote in 1998, and it's quite clear that the numbers for Republicanism in general have hardly nudged in the last 25 years. SF+SDLP goes back and forth over the 40% line by a point or two.

The real story is that Unionists are slowly moving to Alliance. It's taking a generation or three, and past performance is not a guarantee of future performance, but if you look at where the figures have gone, that's why SF has moved into first place - not because Republicanism has taken mindshare, but because enough people have decided that Unionism isnt for them.



You'll have to excuse the fairly constant 6-7% of "Unknown" at the bottom. I wasn't going to go through every tiny party from the last 25 years and work out whether their 0.7% of the vote was Republican, Unionist, or Other.

For the record - Republican is SF and SDLP, Unionist is DUP,UUP, PUP, and TUV, and Other is Alliance, Green, and People Before Profit (who I'm fairly sure are Other, but am happy to be told otherwise, although it won't make much difference to the graph shape.

Comments

[danieldwilliam]

It is still not settled law that the Westminster government has to consent to a referendum. It is probably the case that they do but until it's tested in court it is uncertain.

[mountainkiss]

I am sure this is true, but I don’t think there is any possibility of success on any other terms and I think the FM also thinks this.

[danieldwilliam]

There is room in here for a deliberate failure.

The current SNP leadership is under some pressure to actually have the referendum they keep putting in their manifesto. There is also a limit to the amount of time a party can be in government before they run out of steam and I think the SNP are probably approaching that point.

Trying to have one and then failing to be allowed one is perhaps the next best thing.

A lot of that rests on the likely long-term prospects for Alba. Which probably look a little weaker than I expected them to be right now.

[mountainkiss]

I do not think Alba have long-term prospects because I think it's inextricably linked with Salmond and I think his brand is tarnished beyond repair one way or another. But could be wrong.

[danieldwilliam]

I think that is probably true and more true now that attitudes to Russian state influence in domestic politics are hardening.

The other variable is how solid Sturgeon's position within the SNP is outwith her delivery of the several-times-promised-not-yet-delivered referendum is. If the factions in the Yes movement who want a referendum soon can't get rid of her within the SNP for any price, then Alba exists as a vehicles for them to go to. Perhaps an unattractive and electorally restricted vehicle but there is some value in being able tocredibly threaten to destroy a thing.

[mountainkiss]

Yes, I see this. She appears to have a strangle lock but I don't know anything about what's going on behind the scenes and how rational it is.

[danieldwilliam]

I have no idea what conversations the senior leadership of the SNP have had and what decisions they have made. I think options on the menu include

1) We won't win in the 2020's we should delay until the 2030's.

2) We should wait until the polls are more in our favour.

3) Beige social democracy until people are not terrified and morale improves.

4) Wait until there is a hung parliament. Issue our demands then.

5) Wait until we can play Parnell and the Irish Home Rule party i.e. merry hell in Westminster FOR EVER.

6) What we want from the next constitutional change is a) fiscal autonomy b) the right to control when and how the independence question is settled as a pre-cursor to an actual referendum in our own time.

7) What we actually want is Devo-Max but we can't say that.

8) When COVID is actually over, we're going to actually try and hold a referendum.

9) The more Boris the Better in the short term. Confront people with the unacceptable face of Toryism in the 21st century.

10) Actually, all my attention is on mitigating Boris and co and I don't have time for much else.

[andrewducker]

I'm team "2". But accept that they have to make a move sooner than that to keep their base on board.

I do not expect them to win a referendum in the near future, although I'd give them a ⅒ chance of doing so.

If we got full fiscal autonomy that would be nice. But I'd see that as a stepping stone to full independence.

The only thing I can think of that would stop me voting for Independence would be electoral reform at Westminster.