A quick graph on Northern Ireland voting patterns

[andrewducker]

Lots of noise about "Look at Sinn Fein! The Republicans are coming!"

So I grabbed the numbers from Wikipedia all the way back to the first NI Assembly vote in 1998, and it's quite clear that the numbers for Republicanism in general have hardly nudged in the last 25 years. SF+SDLP goes back and forth over the 40% line by a point or two.

The real story is that Unionists are slowly moving to Alliance. It's taking a generation or three, and past performance is not a guarantee of future performance, but if you look at where the figures have gone, that's why SF has moved into first place - not because Republicanism has taken mindshare, but because enough people have decided that Unionism isnt for them.



You'll have to excuse the fairly constant 6-7% of "Unknown" at the bottom. I wasn't going to go through every tiny party from the last 25 years and work out whether their 0.7% of the vote was Republican, Unionist, or Other.

For the record - Republican is SF and SDLP, Unionist is DUP,UUP, PUP, and TUV, and Other is Alliance, Green, and People Before Profit (who I'm fairly sure are Other, but am happy to be told otherwise, although it won't make much difference to the graph shape.

Comments

[mountainkiss]

I think it might be stuck until and unless there’s an actual campaign, in which case a lot of views will crystallise. But could be wrong.

[andrewducker]

Yeah, it very-much depends on what the SNP can throw at the Conservatives that they haven't already thrown! I'm not convinced that most people haven't already made their minds up, but we shall see.

[mountainkiss]

I think it’s a long time since anyone did active envisioning of an independent Scotland. It’s not politically wise right now - the FM has sensibly concentrated on exigent issues and building a broader party brand. But an independence campaign would introduce new dialogue, I think.

[danieldwilliam]

It might do, but I think the odds are probably that it wouldn't if the referendum were held soon.

There was a big shift in opinions during the last referendum campaign. Polls at the beginning of the campaign had Yes on about 30% - final vote was 45%. And the split is currently running at about 50:50 with No having a small but persistent advantage.

However, I'm not sure that a referendum campaign now would shift opinions that much. I think most people were required to form a firm opinion in 2014 and the question has been pretty live in the public discourse so people have mostly stuck with the decision they made in 2014. I'm not sure that there been time or opportunity for those opinions to have become plastic enough for a campaign to make that much difference.

Even the fact of an English Brexit hasn't firmly shifted opinion much away from the current approximately 50:50 split.

If a referendum campaign were launched in favourable conditions to Yes (rubbish Tory government mired in corruption and incompetence and the impact of Brexit becoming more apparent) the campaign might start from 50:50 and then make enough difference to produce a clear but narrow win for Yes.

There is a good chance that an independence campaign built around a social democratic liberal society with membership of the EU could build a coalition that attracted more than 60% of voters. My gut feel is that it probably wouldn't in the 2020's but probably would in the 2030's. I would be delighted to be wrong.

There's an interesting strategic bind for the pro-independence camp, in that in order to form that social democratic pro-EU coalition they require the Labour Party to be unlikely to win a UK general election whilst at the same time the Tories are rubbish or competently doing things that are anathema in Scotland. Those things strike me as being at the same end of an electoral see-saw unless the political cultures of England and Scotland diverge more and more. The worse the Tories are the more likely it is that Labour win an electio

[mountainkiss]

There's no possibility of a referendum whilst we have a rubbish Tory government etc. etc. - they won't consent to it. I think the only realistic pathway is a GE with no overall majority, at which point the FM will be able to demand a referendum as the price of a coalition. (I think this is probably the most likely outcome, though far from certainty.)

[danieldwilliam]

It is still not settled law that the Westminster government has to consent to a referendum. It is probably the case that they do but until it's tested in court it is uncertain.

[mountainkiss]

I am sure this is true, but I don’t think there is any possibility of success on any other terms and I think the FM also thinks this.

[danieldwilliam]

There is room in here for a deliberate failure.

The current SNP leadership is under some pressure to actually have the referendum they keep putting in their manifesto. There is also a limit to the amount of time a party can be in government before they run out of steam and I think the SNP are probably approaching that point.

Trying to have one and then failing to be allowed one is perhaps the next best thing.

A lot of that rests on the likely long-term prospects for Alba. Which probably look a little weaker than I expected them to be right now.

[mountainkiss]

I do not think Alba have long-term prospects because I think it's inextricably linked with Salmond and I think his brand is tarnished beyond repair one way or another. But could be wrong.

[danieldwilliam]

I think that is probably true and more true now that attitudes to Russian state influence in domestic politics are hardening.

The other variable is how solid Sturgeon's position within the SNP is outwith her delivery of the several-times-promised-not-yet-delivered referendum is. If the factions in the Yes movement who want a referendum soon can't get rid of her within the SNP for any price, then Alba exists as a vehicles for them to go to. Perhaps an unattractive and electorally restricted vehicle but there is some value in being able tocredibly threaten to destroy a thing.

[mountainkiss]

Yes, I see this. She appears to have a strangle lock but I don't know anything about what's going on behind the scenes and how rational it is.

[danieldwilliam]

I have no idea what conversations the senior leadership of the SNP have had and what decisions they have made. I think options on the menu include

1) We won't win in the 2020's we should delay until the 2030's.

2) We should wait until the polls are more in our favour.

3) Beige social democracy until people are not terrified and morale improves.

4) Wait until there is a hung parliament. Issue our demands then.

5) Wait until we can play Parnell and the Irish Home Rule party i.e. merry hell in Westminster FOR EVER.

6) What we want from the next constitutional change is a) fiscal autonomy b) the right to control when and how the independence question is settled as a pre-cursor to an actual referendum in our own time.

7) What we actually want is Devo-Max but we can't say that.

8) When COVID is actually over, we're going to actually try and hold a referendum.

9) The more Boris the Better in the short term. Confront people with the unacceptable face of Toryism in the 21st century.

10) Actually, all my attention is on mitigating Boris and co and I don't have time for much else.

[andrewducker]

I'm team "2". But accept that they have to make a move sooner than that to keep their base on board.

I do not expect them to win a referendum in the near future, although I'd give them a ⅒ chance of doing so.

If we got full fiscal autonomy that would be nice. But I'd see that as a stepping stone to full independence.

The only thing I can think of that would stop me voting for Independence would be electoral reform at Westminster.