Interesting Links for 25-09-2021

[andrewducker]

Spain to ban sale of fruit and vegetables in plastic wrapping from 2023

(tags:plastic Spain food )

The NSA and CIA Use Ad Blockers Because Online Advertising Is So Dangerous

(tags:CIA security advertising adblock )

UK ministers backing plans for another new nuclear power plant to help reduce carbon footprint

(tags:UK nuclearpower co2 )

England set to eradicate HIV by 2030

(tags:England HIV GoodNews )

China declares all crypto-currency transactions illegal

(tags:bitcoin China Doom )

Fossilized Footprints Reveal Human Habitation of North America 23,000 Years Ago

(tags:humans paleontology prehistory USA America )

Minority voices filtered out of Google Natural Language Processing models

(tags:Google racism LGBT language )

"The most scarily/stunningly impressive linguistic feat I've ever seen"

(tags:language computers games )

Is this the religious sexual equivalent of Sovereign Citizen thought processes?

(tags:logic sex mormons religion wtf )

Comments

[danieldwilliam]

By 2026 the developers of the nuclear site would need to be confident that the cost of storage wasn't going to fall much further over the next couple of decades.

Or that they would have some state guarantees of prices.

[andrewducker]

Oh, I've been assuming that we're going to have state guaranteed prices. I didn't think there was any other way to get nuclear power built any more.

[danieldwilliam]

I think you are right about the need for state guaranteed pricing.

I guess what I'm fishing about it in is this - if your cost of production is about $125 / MWH starting in say 2030 (based on Hinckley C) and, for the sake of argument, let's assume that the UK's wind and solar fleet are priced at an average cost of $125 / MWH (made up of much cheaper direct power with some expensive storage) and the cost of that is coming down by say 1% a year on average then in about 20-25 years time, in 2045, when the 2030 vintage of solar PV / wind turbines and batteries gets renewed you about $25 / MWH or 25% too expensive. And the situation is getting worse.

That's a big state guarantee to ask for and you have to be pretty confident that the state will actually back that guarantee.

And you have another 40-60 years of design life left to run from 2045 and I don't see any mechanism whereby energy prices start to go back up. Not that I think renewables prices will keep falling at their current rate for 60 years, but I'm certain about the next 10 and confident about the next 20.

I think it's a different ask if your price was $125 and long-term energy prices looked like they might be in a band of $115 to $140 with the occasional excitement of an oil war.

[andrewducker]

I agree. If battery/storage prices drop fast enough then nuclear isn't worth the government investing in by guaranteeing prices. At which point there's no chance of them making a profit and they'll cancel it.

Which is why I said https://andrewducker.dreamwidth.org/4052353.html?thread=28137345#cmt28137345 (and was surprised you disagreed)

[danieldwilliam]

I think that probably it either gets canned straight away or it will rumble on for decades. I think once these things have gone through a few gate reviews they've got a life of their own - including the fact that many large and influential organisations have invested in the lobbying efforts required to keep multi-generational project alive politically.

So I think one of the following happens

1) it goes no further in 2022
2) the current government goes ahead with the scheme and by 2026 it is obvious it is going to be a boondoggle but by then everyone is too committed, there is some messing about with reviews for 10 years and the government gives a price guarantee it can and will default on and the developer pretends to believe this and passes on the additional financiing costs to the consumer and the project goes bust in about 2050 and gets nationalised and everyone knows it but nobody says that bit outloud.

[andrewducker]

Ah, gotcha.

Has the government ever made price guarantees and then reneged on them? Seems like an excellent way to never, ever, have companies deliver anything ever again.

[danieldwilliam]

Western governments are not in the habit of renegging on credit or guarantees of support but see RBS in 2008-10 for example or the dancing around who was guaranteeing the deposits in Irish and Icelandic banks.