andrewducker (![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png)
andrewducker) wrote2019-05-06 08:52 am
andrewducker) wrote2019-05-06 08:52 am
Where are we on Brexit?
It's been a while since we had one of these, and I wanted to get my thoughts in order.
The local elections last week _should_ have sent a solid message. But, of course, Corbyn and May are saying that the message it sent was "More Brexit Please". However, they've still not got any chance of getting a deal over the line.
Labour won't accept a Brexit deal with the Conservatives without a customs deal of some kind*. And Theresa May agreeing to that would cause at least 100 of her MPs to vote against it.
Meanwhile, two thirds of Labour MPs are saying they won't vote for any Brexit deal which doesn't have a second referendum attached to it.
Plus, of course, the EU have said that all they will edit at this point is the political declaration, the actual withdrawal agreement is sealed.
And if the government decides "The hell with this" and call a general election we end up in a situation like this:
Conservatives: 279
Labour: 268
Liberal Democrats: 29
SNP: 51 (I think, looking at the other numbers)
Which means you'd need Lab+Lib+SNP for a solid majority**. Coalition of Chaos indeed!
*As far as anyone can tell the Labour leadership are still thinking that they can have a customs deal that gives them lots of access to things, but without having to give anything up. As they aren't about to be able to directly negotiate, we're not likely to see their unicorns run into a brick wall.
** Although Labour could aim for a minority government and just dare others to vote against them. Or pick just one of the other two parties to have a formal agreement with.
The local elections last week _should_ have sent a solid message. But, of course, Corbyn and May are saying that the message it sent was "More Brexit Please". However, they've still not got any chance of getting a deal over the line.
Labour won't accept a Brexit deal with the Conservatives without a customs deal of some kind*. And Theresa May agreeing to that would cause at least 100 of her MPs to vote against it.
Meanwhile, two thirds of Labour MPs are saying they won't vote for any Brexit deal which doesn't have a second referendum attached to it.
Plus, of course, the EU have said that all they will edit at this point is the political declaration, the actual withdrawal agreement is sealed.
And if the government decides "The hell with this" and call a general election we end up in a situation like this:
Conservatives: 279
Labour: 268
Liberal Democrats: 29
SNP: 51 (I think, looking at the other numbers)
Which means you'd need Lab+Lib+SNP for a solid majority**. Coalition of Chaos indeed!
*As far as anyone can tell the Labour leadership are still thinking that they can have a customs deal that gives them lots of access to things, but without having to give anything up. As they aren't about to be able to directly negotiate, we're not likely to see their unicorns run into a brick wall.
** Although Labour could aim for a minority government and just dare others to vote against them. Or pick just one of the other two parties to have a formal agreement with.
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The real problem is the Labour leadership and the NEC is well aware that many lifelong Labour supporters and voters are racist, sexist and anti-Semitic and they can't do without their votes come election time. They're a large part of the reason UKIP got 3.8 million votes back in 2015 since most of the Tory Leavers stayed with the baby-eating party. It was only after the Referendum and the Tories agreed to invoke Article 50 that the UKIP vote dropped to about 600,000 in the 2017 election and Labour recovered some ground on the baby-eaters with the UKIP-supporting left coming home to their traditional roots.
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And those awful Labour supporters are thankfully less numerous than the more decent ones.
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/labour-party/news/101666/backing-brexit-will-cost-labour-more-votes-iraq