andrewducker: (Default)
andrewducker ([personal profile] andrewducker) wrote2019-01-17 11:03 am
danieldwilliam: (Default)

[personal profile] danieldwilliam 2019-01-17 01:25 pm (UTC)(link)
The Scottish Case is important here.

An implication of a rule that is actually binding on the UK Government that it avoid a No Deal Brexit is that can not leave the EU without a deal. (I.e a rule that is in the necessary form to compel HMG whether that is House of Commons Standing Orders or a whole new Act of Parliament0

What flows from that in the event of no deal being ratified by the 29th of March is that one of following is true

a) the UK government must, on the 29th March, unilaterally revoke Article 50 (which it has a right to do, perhaps, depending on your reading the of the UK constitution and, inter alia, the Gina Miller Case

b) the Withdrawal Act has been in part repeal, implicitely or explicitely

c) the UK Government have no right to exit the EU on the 29th March, and can't do so, and therefore revokation of Article 50 is implied and operates by process of law

So I don't think Corbyn has to do much heavy lifting about how to take No Deal of the Table. It is possible that the Government (rather than Parliament) has the right to unilaterally revoke Article 50. It can arrange to bind itself.

Or the UK Parliament could pass the EU Withdrawal (Amendment) (Article 50 Revocation) Act 2019

S1 The United Kingdom shall not leave the EU without a Withdrawal Agreement that has been ratified by the House of Commons

S2 (i) If, by, 9pm on the day of withdrawal the UK Parliament has not ratified a Withdrawal Agreement the relevant government minister is required to issue proper notices revoking Article 50

(ii) if the notices are not delivered in proper form, or if no notices are in fact delivered, the reaching of 9pm on the day of withdrawal will still be considered a constitutionally valid revocation of Article 50.

Corbyn, himself, hasn't actually said that and he may not have thought it through but it's pretty easy to do.

What is trickier is ensuring that the UK doesn't leave without a deal in a way that still means we are definately leaving.
danieldwilliam: (Default)

[personal profile] danieldwilliam 2019-01-17 01:35 pm (UTC)(link)

They probably ought to couch the legislation in terms of (If by T-t hours, WA has not been agreed than X) but legislation that said "the UK may not leave the EU with a deal" would be valid legislation. It would end up being litigated to buggery and back, probably more than once.

Probably after Brexit Day.

However what passes for statesmanship this century is to pass ill-thought out legislation that triggers litigation and a constitutional crisis. There may be a majority in the House for the No No Deal But No Alternative Act.
danieldwilliam: (Default)

[personal profile] danieldwilliam 2019-01-17 01:37 pm (UTC)(link)
Corbyn also has some incentive to not propose anything helpful but merely to get in the way whilst the Tories implode and explode and assplode every which way.

Which doesn't make him a statesman or even a decent candidate for PM, but no greater love hath a man than that he lay down his ambition for his party.
danieldwilliam: (Default)

[personal profile] danieldwilliam 2019-01-17 01:38 pm (UTC)(link)
I am still of the view that Corbyn couldn't find his arse with both hands tied behind his back (and am awaiting research funding to explore this vital question by establishing a base line).
danieldwilliam: (Default)

[personal profile] danieldwilliam 2019-01-17 01:44 pm (UTC)(link)
Well me also, me also, but, we did lose and we should just get over it.
danieldwilliam: (Default)

[personal profile] danieldwilliam 2019-01-17 02:43 pm (UTC)(link)

Mostly I agree with that but there is an option 1B. In order to rule out a No Deal Brexit there must either be 1) a Deal or 2) a revocation of Article 50. That Deal doesn't have to be the one that May negotiated, it doesn't have to be one that leaves the confidence and supply agreeement in place, it doesn't have to be one that leaves the Tory Party in existence.

If one is to ascribe some street smarts to Corbyn it might be that his hope is to force May in to a positon where she is stuck between No Brexit and a Deal that will pass the Commons - such as Norway and hopefully destroy the Tory Party in the process.

In order for that to happen he needs to not draw attention to his end game. Hence his silence on what would be the implicit policy of the Labour Party - Single Market or Remain.

Personally I do not ascribe that level of cunning or understanding to Corbyn. I think he is mostly bumbling around, blowing raspberries at the government and trying not to split his own voting base by actually doing anything. But that doesn't stop him lighting by accident on an outcome that I like.
drplokta: (Default)

[personal profile] drplokta 2019-01-17 04:26 pm (UTC)(link)
There’s one way to ensure that the UK definitely leaves, but doesn’t leave without a deal. But that way was voted down by 230 votes two days ago. There’s no other way to do it.