Brexit: Where are we now?

[andrewducker]

Trying to get it straight in my head where are right now.

Theresa May seems to be at the end of the negotiation agreement, and has (almost) put together a withdrawal agreement which is acceptable to the EU (complete with NI Backstop).

This withdrawal agreement is absolutely unacceptable to the Brexit chunk of the Conservative Party. Who have said they will vote against it. This includes a fair part of her cabinet.

It is also pretty unacceptable to the Remain chunk of the Conservative Party. Who have utterly failed to vote against the leadership so far, so can sadly probably be ignored.

Labour have also said that any deal which only ties us to a temporary customs union is unacceptable. And that they will vote against it. However, bits of their party are either staunch Leavers or are so terrified of No-Deal that they will vote in favour of this deal.

The DUP have said that they will vote against it.

The SNP have said that they will vote against it.

And this needs to happen pretty-much right now, if they're going to get it out to the EU27 to ratify it.

I suspect that it's going to be pretty close on whether they can pass it. I'm really hoping they can't, and that parliament is able to hold the government to account.

Of course, we'll then have to see what happens next. My gut says that in a situation where Theresa May says "Fine, it's No-Deal then" there are enough competent MPs to force her out, in one way or another.

My stockpiling will begin in January, if we haven't gotten ourselves into a more sensible situation by then.

Comments

[danieldwilliam]

I'm not sure I believe May when she says a deal is close. She's been wrong about that three or four times before.

Also, as you say, there are plenty of people back at home ready and willing to put a stick in the spokes before the deal gets to being ratifiied by the EU-27. I don't see a deal being ratified by the EU-27 if Jacob Rees-Mogg is in the process of bringing down the govenment.

I'm not quite as pessimistic as you about the Tory Remainers. I think, on balance, they will vote to keep a Tory Ministry in power even if that means voting for a rubbish deal, but I don't think it's a certainty. The ghost of Robert Peel is, ahem, alive and well, but what his prescence signifies is uncertain.

I'm more worried about Kate Hoey and co who are too stupid to be unprincipled.

I would not be surprised if we ended up with Keir Starmer as PM. May's government collapses. No acceptable Tory candidate. Labour MP's won't back their own Leader as PM, Starmer goes to the Palace.

[mountainkiss]

I think you're right about Tory Remainers. (You must I think be wrong about Jo Johnson because he's made his position so publicly clear.)

I'm pretty sure the ERG can muster 30-40 votes against and will do, and I am equally sure that the DUP will vote against.

I think the really interesting thing is going to be where the Labour Party votes. Corbyn might now pay the price here for his lack of engagement with the Parliamentary party, and some of me would like to see this happen. Party members will have to trade off their own constituency polling (and indeed general election polling), their fear of being associated with No Deal, their desire to bring down the Government and trigger an election, their personal views on a Corbyn government and other factors that I haven't thought about. I can't really call this one and would want much more detailed modelling, but I wouldn't want to be a Labour whip right now.

Am I repeating a conversation we've previously had? Am getting slight sense of deja vu. Apologies if so.

[andrewducker]

Some of that might be helped by every single labour constituency now supporting a new referendum.

https://www.itv.com/news/2018-11-02/voters-in-every-labour-held-constituency-support-a-peoples-vote-on-brexit/

[mountainkiss]

I've seen that, but I haven't seen it accompanied by Labour Party politicians advocating for it, except for the usual suspects. I am not sure that I think that the polling is yet sufficiently reliable to be a significant factor here when compared with how the constituencies voted during the actual referendum. But could be wrong.

[danieldwilliam]

There does not have to be a General Election for there to be a change of Prime Minister and the Prime Minister does not have to be a Party Leader. If there were enough Tory Remainer so inclined Keir Starmer could lead a Government of National Unity with Corbyn as Labour Leader.

I think you are right about the ERG numbers. If they had more they would propose a motion of No Confidence in May as Tory Leader.

[mountainkiss]

I find it pretty hard to envisage the circumstances under which this could happen.

[danieldwilliam]

Which is why he's 100/1.