Brexit: Where are we now?

[andrewducker]

Trying to get it straight in my head where are right now.

Theresa May seems to be at the end of the negotiation agreement, and has (almost) put together a withdrawal agreement which is acceptable to the EU (complete with NI Backstop).

This withdrawal agreement is absolutely unacceptable to the Brexit chunk of the Conservative Party. Who have said they will vote against it. This includes a fair part of her cabinet.

It is also pretty unacceptable to the Remain chunk of the Conservative Party. Who have utterly failed to vote against the leadership so far, so can sadly probably be ignored.

Labour have also said that any deal which only ties us to a temporary customs union is unacceptable. And that they will vote against it. However, bits of their party are either staunch Leavers or are so terrified of No-Deal that they will vote in favour of this deal.

The DUP have said that they will vote against it.

The SNP have said that they will vote against it.

And this needs to happen pretty-much right now, if they're going to get it out to the EU27 to ratify it.

I suspect that it's going to be pretty close on whether they can pass it. I'm really hoping they can't, and that parliament is able to hold the government to account.

Of course, we'll then have to see what happens next. My gut says that in a situation where Theresa May says "Fine, it's No-Deal then" there are enough competent MPs to force her out, in one way or another.

My stockpiling will begin in January, if we haven't gotten ourselves into a more sensible situation by then.

Comments

[autopope]

There is now no longer time to put in place the legislation for a people's vote and to carry it out before the Article 50 countdown runs out.

There might be time for a people's vote before the next euro-election next summer, but it's running awfully close.

[xenophanean]

Perhaps then this is the No Deal camp plan, get people's hopes up about a new vote, then engineer a crash-out so there's nothing to vote about?

Gotta say, not 100% confident of Jo Johnson's motives.

[danieldwilliam]

Jon Worth thinks that the implications of the UK being s member of the EU during the next session of the European Parliament and then maybe leaving part way through are managable with decent precedents for solutions to each of the difficulties it presents.

Also, the implications of the Scottish case on whether the UK can unilaterally rescind Article 50 are a bit uncertain.