andrewducker: (Default)
andrewducker ([personal profile] andrewducker) wrote2018-09-24 12:00 pm

Re: 2nd Referendum on Brexit

[personal profile] nojay 2018-09-24 02:03 pm (UTC)(link)
There's no will in Parliament (meaning on the Government benches which can command a majority of the House, there would be no open vote on this, full three-line whips) for a second Referendum. It would take months of pressure and movement to get to that point. A hastily-arranged referendum would be a disaster with the losing side claiming vote-rigging, cheating, financial irregularities, sore losers yadda yadda. The realists on all sides know this and are keeping the concept at arm's length.

We're headed for a no-deal exit, all other options on the table have deal-breakers for the British (Norway, Canada plus) or the EU (cherry-picking). With luck we'll have some administrative stuff in place by March 29, aircraft and pilot licencing etc. but trade is going to be destroyed until the pieces can be picked up and glued back together, months or years after. My view is that the consequences will hit so hard we'll petition to rejoin the EU promptly by but that's the best hope for a shit situation.
danieldwilliam: (Default)

Re: 2nd Referendum on Brexit

[personal profile] danieldwilliam 2018-09-24 03:42 pm (UTC)(link)

I think you're right about the lack of will in Parliament. Until we experience the reality it will be difficult to articulate clearly and persuasively a change in the mood of the nation in the way that translate in to Parliamentary action.

Legitimacy is the word. A second referendum in a hurry might be a useful way for a government or for Parliament absent an effective government to shift responsibility for whatever might be about to happen from themselves to the people but you are right it would be open to all kinds of legitimacy issues.

We are certainly heading for something breaking. Either the UK or the Tory Party.
ckd: A small blue foam shark sitting on a London Underground map (london)

Re: 2nd Referendum on Brexit

[personal profile] ckd 2018-09-24 07:23 pm (UTC)(link)
We are certainly heading for something breaking. Either the UK or the Tory Party.

I know which one of those I'm more willing to dispense with. Unfortunately I see non-trivial odds that both will go, which will give me a little bit of schadenfreude at the fall of the party responsible while not mitigating the problems of the fall of the UK one whit.