andrewducker: (Default)
andrewducker ([personal profile] andrewducker) wrote2018-09-24 12:00 pm
danieldwilliam: (Default)

Re: Labour Brexit Means ???

[personal profile] danieldwilliam 2018-09-24 01:34 pm (UTC)(link)
You are less cynical about the Tory party than I am.

As you know, I come from a long, long line of Labour activists and whilst I might be on hiatus from the tribe you can take the boy out of Labour but you can't take the Labour out of the boy.

For enough Tories to vote to effectively bring down their own government they need to be comfortable with losing their jobs, their friends and allies losing their jobs, being banished from their tribe and risking both a Corbyn government and a permanent split in the Tory party and vote They also need to be sure that sufficient other Tories will vote with them, or else they have isolated themselves and sacrificed themselves for no good purpose.

You may be right about them but I've always been with Nye Bevan on the subject of Tories.
mountainkiss: (Default)

Re: Labour Brexit Means ???

[personal profile] mountainkiss 2018-09-24 01:41 pm (UTC)(link)

I mean, don't get me wrong, I do genuinely think there's a good chance of no deal - currently putting it at 40%. But I don't think that'll come from a vote. I think it'll come from the lack of one.

danieldwilliam: (Default)

Re: Labour Brexit Means ???

[personal profile] danieldwilliam 2018-09-24 01:59 pm (UTC)(link)
I'm not trying to split hairs here but what sort of scenario are you thinking of when you say not a vote.

It's open to backbenchers to trigger various proceedures in the Commons, up to and including a vote of No Confidence - so they ought to be able to force a vote.

I currently think 60%
mountainkiss: (Default)

Re: Labour Brexit Means ???

[personal profile] mountainkiss 2018-09-24 02:04 pm (UTC)(link)

Sorry, I mean a vote that legitimises leaving the EU without a deal.

danieldwilliam: (Default)

Re: Labour Brexit Means ???

[personal profile] danieldwilliam 2018-09-24 03:51 pm (UTC)(link)
I see.

I think the reality is that it's all going to be murky, up to and including threats of violence. So, who knows what anyone will do.
mountainkiss: (Default)

Re: Labour Brexit Means ???

[personal profile] mountainkiss 2018-09-24 01:41 pm (UTC)(link)

I also do not think that a Tory government would survive a no-deal scenario for very long, and some of the politicians whose sole aim is the survival of the party will take this into account.

danieldwilliam: (Default)

Re: Labour Brexit Means ???

[personal profile] danieldwilliam 2018-09-24 02:00 pm (UTC)(link)
I fear many of them have decided that the die is cast and the only way out is to go through and out the other side.