andrewducker | Interesting Links for 24-09-2018

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Chechnya starts concentration camps for gay men, first time after Hitler: (tags: lgbt homosexuality Chechnya fascism bigotry OhForFucksSake )
Labour's new Brexit referendum would not offer option to remain in EU, says John McDonnell: (tags: Labour UK Europe OhForFucksSake )
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Malware Disguised as Job Offers Distributed on Freelance Sites: (tags: jobs malware virus OhForFucksSake )
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The Tories can vote for a No Deal Brexit. We effectively default on our existing obligations and become a pariah nation for a decade. Our economy shrinks by 10% in Q2 of CY2019. A quarter of million poor people die. The pound hits US$0.90. It's less than ideal but it's better than the Tory Party splitting.

Okay. I'm going to nail my colours to the mast and say that I don't think there's a majority in the party for that. I could be wrong. They don't need many people to refuse to endorse it before they lose the ability to get it through Parliament.

You are less cynical about the Tory party than I am.

As you know, I come from a long, long line of Labour activists and whilst I might be on hiatus from the tribe you can take the boy out of Labour but you can't take the Labour out of the boy.

For enough Tories to vote to effectively bring down their own government they need to be comfortable with losing their jobs, their friends and allies losing their jobs, being banished from their tribe and risking both a Corbyn government and a permanent split in the Tory party and vote They also need to be sure that sufficient other Tories will vote with them, or else they have isolated themselves and sacrificed themselves for no good purpose.

You may be right about them but I've always been with Nye Bevan on the subject of Tories.

I mean, don't get me wrong, I do genuinely think there's a good chance of no deal - currently putting it at 40%. But I don't think that'll come from a vote. I think it'll come from the lack of one.

I'm not trying to split hairs here but what sort of scenario are you thinking of when you say not a vote.

It's open to backbenchers to trigger various proceedures in the Commons, up to and including a vote of No Confidence - so they ought to be able to force a vote.

I currently think 60%

Sorry, I mean a vote that legitimises leaving the EU without a deal.

I see.

I think the reality is that it's all going to be murky, up to and including threats of violence. So, who knows what anyone will do.

I also do not think that a Tory government would survive a no-deal scenario for very long, and some of the politicians whose sole aim is the survival of the party will take this into account.

I fear many of them have decided that the die is cast and the only way out is to go through and out the other side.

Yup, with you there.

I really hope there isn't, but most worried about labour MPs supporting a no deal (or bad deal) brexit :(

There will be some, yes. Hoey, Field, another one whom I've forgotten. But I (possibly wrongly) don't think there will be so many that it makes the passage of no deal inevitable. The Labour Party will be strongly whipped to vote against it.

I think an accidental no-deal is a very real possibility, just because the clock stops ticking before there's any possibility of a deal. But I think it's pretty unlikely to be a deliberate outcome.

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