andrewducker (![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png)
andrewducker) wrote2018-09-21 10:49 am
andrewducker) wrote2018-09-21 10:49 am
Brexit: Reality catches up with Theresa May
Yesterday was not a good day for Theresa May.
Talking to the press she was 'visibly angry and shaking' saying "If there are concerns from the European Union, lets hear what those concerns are and sit down and look at those concerns." - the article I read that in continued to explain that those concerns have been clearly spelled out by the EU (not wanting to split the single market, not wanting to delegate EU customs checks to a non-member state, and not wanting to give UK service providers a competitive advantage over those on the continent).
She has form for shouting at the EU, trying to work around them, and complaining when she can't bypass carefully laid out legal agreements by blustering. It's working about as well now as it did then.
My favourite response being from this ex-negotiator for the UK at Europe, talking about the negotiation process so far:
I am not sure who is currently advising her about the EU negotiations, but whatever advice she is getting is either terrible, or she's ignoring it. The deputy political editor for The Times says that she was warned it would be disastrous, but ignored the advice as too gloomy.
And that seems standard for how the UK has been behaving. "Just ignore the advice about how awful it will be, chin up, we'll be victorious in the end." All of which makes me think that we could do with teaching schoolkids less about Word War 2 and more about The Suez Crisis.
And all of which explains why my Twitter feed this morning has an advert on it, paid for by the British government, trying to sell me on how the Chequers agreement will be just great:
So, Chequers is resolutely dead, and we're heading for No Deal, right as Theresa May is going into a Conservative Party Conference which looks to be even worse than last year's mess. Things have become so bad inside the Conservative Party that a chunk of them have set up an alternative party conference down the road.
Any bets on when the whole house of cards collapses?
Talking to the press she was 'visibly angry and shaking' saying "If there are concerns from the European Union, lets hear what those concerns are and sit down and look at those concerns." - the article I read that in continued to explain that those concerns have been clearly spelled out by the EU (not wanting to split the single market, not wanting to delegate EU customs checks to a non-member state, and not wanting to give UK service providers a competitive advantage over those on the continent).
She has form for shouting at the EU, trying to work around them, and complaining when she can't bypass carefully laid out legal agreements by blustering. It's working about as well now as it did then.
My favourite response being from this ex-negotiator for the UK at Europe, talking about the negotiation process so far:
It has been mishandled at every possible turn.
No attempt to build consensus at home, work cross-party or cross-UK nations, unwillingness to take account of or even understand EU27 legal and political realities, gaslighting of the population, constant attempts to blame others, obvious untruths about consequences, unwillingness to listen to advice or expertise, attempts to bypass Parliament, insulting negotiating partners (both their intelligence and outright), denial of the need for trade-offs, arbitrary red lines based on nothing, ruling out reasonable options definitively before negotiations, negotiating at home rather than in negotiations, the list goes on.
That’s even forgetting invoking Art50 with no plan then taking over a year to come up with on. Every single one of them was by May and UKGov’s own choice. It did not have to be like this.
I am not sure who is currently advising her about the EU negotiations, but whatever advice she is getting is either terrible, or she's ignoring it. The deputy political editor for The Times says that she was warned it would be disastrous, but ignored the advice as too gloomy.
And that seems standard for how the UK has been behaving. "Just ignore the advice about how awful it will be, chin up, we'll be victorious in the end." All of which makes me think that we could do with teaching schoolkids less about Word War 2 and more about The Suez Crisis.
And all of which explains why my Twitter feed this morning has an advert on it, paid for by the British government, trying to sell me on how the Chequers agreement will be just great:
So, Chequers is resolutely dead, and we're heading for No Deal, right as Theresa May is going into a Conservative Party Conference which looks to be even worse than last year's mess. Things have become so bad inside the Conservative Party that a chunk of them have set up an alternative party conference down the road.
Any bets on when the whole house of cards collapses?
no subject
I am not sure that the other factions of the party would like to get rid of May right now. They don't want someone from the ERG in charge. I think none of the likely candidates for leader from Not-the-ERG parts of the party want to take over from May now. Not if they could take over from May after Brexit. Also, they probably reckon that until Brexit is over (one way or another) a Remainer won't win the Tory Party Members' vote.
So, probably May wins the Vote of No Confidence.
I think if they trigger a vote of No Confidence but don't win, both the No Confidence vote and the actual leadership election then they will be in a world of pain. If you come at the king, you have best not miss.
From the point of view of advancing their cause the ERG, the ERG might be better following the doctrine of the Fleet in Being.
But maybe not. Maybe the ERG have lost their head or the Remainers think they have the numbers to put two non-ERG supporters to the final ballot.
no subject
It's more about whether the anti Brexit group (across all MPs) can be made big enough to bring her down. And if so, how bad do things have to get before they do?
no subject
For unity read not being deselected by their Brexit voting constituency assocations.