About 5-10% of the SNP support are centre-right voters who either really like the idea of an independent Scotland or think they will get more laissez-faire policy in an independent Scotland (these lot are akin to the German party the FDP).
So post independence those people start voting for either the Conservative Party or the Liberal Democrats. (Or between the classical liberals in the Conservative Party and in the SNP there is enough to sustain a classical liberal party in Scotland. I suspect not.)
Most of the rest of the SNP are currently occupying a pretty orthodox centre-left social democrat position. There are a few more radical left-wingers.
The SNP then picks up votes and activists from the Labour Party - those in the Labour Party who either didn't much mind about independence or think that the Union is a lost cause. Why do I think these people go to the SNP rather than the other way round - because the SNP will have just won, both independence and at least one general election ahead of that, and will probably win the general election after independence.
The more radical left elements of both the SNP and the Labour Party can probably group together along with the SSP, TUSC and so on to make a viable radical-left party with a few seats.
Tribalism and the links to the unions might keep the Labour Party going for a while. They might even replace the SNP (I could be wrong) but my best guess is that post-independence the SNP survive as a party and the Labour Party dwindle. At some point I think the Labour Party becomes unsustainable.
no subject
My thinking is this.
About 5-10% of the SNP support are centre-right voters who either really like the idea of an independent Scotland or think they will get more laissez-faire policy in an independent Scotland (these lot are akin to the German party the FDP).
So post independence those people start voting for either the Conservative Party or the Liberal Democrats. (Or between the classical liberals in the Conservative Party and in the SNP there is enough to sustain a classical liberal party in Scotland. I suspect not.)
Most of the rest of the SNP are currently occupying a pretty orthodox centre-left social democrat position. There are a few more radical left-wingers.
The SNP then picks up votes and activists from the Labour Party - those in the Labour Party who either didn't much mind about independence or think that the Union is a lost cause. Why do I think these people go to the SNP rather than the other way round - because the SNP will have just won, both independence and at least one general election ahead of that, and will probably win the general election after independence.
The more radical left elements of both the SNP and the Labour Party can probably group together along with the SSP, TUSC and so on to make a viable radical-left party with a few seats.
Tribalism and the links to the unions might keep the Labour Party going for a while. They might even replace the SNP (I could be wrong) but my best guess is that post-independence the SNP survive as a party and the Labour Party dwindle. At some point I think the Labour Party becomes unsustainable.