Monty Hall

[andrewducker]

[Poll #1770413]

Explanation

I have known what the answer was for ages, but for some reason it only "clicked" in my head today. You can blame sarahs_muse for triggering it.

Comments

[doubtingmichael.livejournal.com]

Good point. I believe this was the case in the original, real-world Monty Hall quiz show. Sometimes he would open a door, sometimes he would take your first pick. At this point it is probably rational to go:

(a) The man likes to save his show's budget.
(b) He does this sort of thing for a living.
(c) He is probably better at mind games than you.
(d) I should stick with my first choice, because that way I guarantee my one-third chance of being right.

Exception: if you were an utterly cute thirteen year old, swap if he suggests it. Because if he's nasty to you, his sponsors will be cross with him.